A new logistic regression (LR) model was used to predict the probability of nitrate contamination exceeding 4 mg/L in predominantly shallow, recently recharged groundwaters of the United States. The new model contains variables representing (1) N fertilizer loading (p < 0.001), (2) percent cropland-pasture (p < 0.001), (3) natural log of human population density (p < 0.001), (4) percent welldrained soils (p < 0.001), (5) depth to the seasonally high water table (p < 0.001), and (6) presence or absence of unconsolidated sand and gravel aquifers (p ) 0.002). Observed and average predicted probabilities associated with deciles of risk are well correlated (r 2 ) 0.875), indicating that the LR model fits the data well. The likelihood of nitrate contamination is greater in areas with high N loading and well-drained surficial soils over unconsolidated sand and gravels. The LR model correctly predicted the status of nitrate contamination in 75% of wells in a validation data set. Considering all wells used in both calibration and validation, observed median nitrate concentration increased from 0.24 to 8.30 mg/L as the mapped probability of nitrate exceeding 4 mg/L increased from e0.17 to >0.83.

The sentences: "In this report, loss through volatilization was considered in determining the nitrogen content of manure from each livestock group. Subsequent deposition of volatilized nitrogen is included in the measurements of inputs from the atmosphere, described in the next section of this report," should be replaced by: "Estimates of nitrogen input from manure in this report do not account for loss through volatilization. Thus, these estimates represent the total nitrogen content in manure as excreted by each livestock group." We apologize for the inconvenience of this errata sheet. A .pdf of the errata sheet is available (10 KB).

Nitrate contamination of groundwater occurs in predictable patterns, based on findings of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. The NAWQA Program was begun in 1991 to describe the quality of the Nation's water resources, using nationally consistent methods. Variables affecting nitrate concentration in groundwater were grouped as “input” factors (population density and the amount of nitrogen contributed by fertilizer, manure, and atmospheric sources) and “aquifer vulnerability” factors (soil drainage characteristic and the ratio of woodland acres to cropland acres in agricultural areas) and compiled in a national map that shows patterns of risk for nitrate contamination of groundwater. Areas with high nitrogen input, well-drained soils, and low woodland to cropland ratio have the highest potential for contamination of shallow groundwater by nitrate. Groundwater nitrate data collected through 1992 from wells less than 100 ft deep generally verified the risk patterns shown on the national map. Median nitrate concentration was 0.2 mg/L in wells representing the low-risk group, and the maximum contaminant level (MCL) was exceeded in 3% of the wells. In contrast, median nitrate concentration was 4.8 mg/L in wells representing the high-risk group, and the MCL was exceeded in 25% of the wells.