These findings demonstrate that prospective ascertainment of individuals at risk for psychosis is feasible, with a level of predictive accuracy comparable to that in other areas of preventive medicine. They provide a benchmark for the rate and shape of the psychosis risk function against which standardized preventive intervention programs can be compared.

Using 2 new global measures, social functioning was found to be a stable trait, unchanged by treatment, with considerable potential to be a marker of schizophrenia. Role functioning, by contrast, may be a more direct barometer of clinical change and may be responsive to treatment and environmental change.

Background Individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR) who progress to fully psychotic symptoms have been observed to show a steeper rate of cortical gray matter reduction compared with those without symptomatic progression and with healthy controls. Whether such changes reflect processes associated with the pathophysiology of schizophrenia or exposure to antipsychotic drugs is unknown. Methods In this multisite study, 274 CHR cases, including 35 who converted to psychosis, and 135 healthy comparison subjects were scanned with MRI at baseline, 12-month follow-up, and/or the point of conversion for those who developed fully psychotic symptoms. Results In a traveling subjects sub-study, we observed excellent reliability for measures of cortical thickness and subcortical volumes. Controlling for multiple comparisons throughout the brain, CHR converters showed a steeper rate of gray matter loss in right superior frontal, middle frontal, and medial orbitofrontal cortical regions, as well as a greater rate of expansion of the third ventricle, compared with CHR non-converters and healthy controls. Differential tissue loss was present among cases who had not received antipsychotic medications during the inter-scan interval and was predicted by baseline levels of an aggregate measure of pro-inflammatory cytokines in plasma. Conclusions These findings demonstrate that the brain changes are not explained by exposure to antipsychotic drugs, but likely play a role in psychosis pathophysiology. Given that the cortical changes were more pronounced among cases with briefer durations of prodromal symptoms, contributing factors may predominantly play a role in acute-onset forms of psychosis.

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Objective About 20–35% of individuals aged 12–30 years who meet criteria for a prodromal risk syndrome convert to psychosis within two years. However, this estimate ignores the fact that clinical high-risk (CHR) cases vary considerably in risk. Here we sought to create a risk calculator that can ascertain the probability of conversion to psychosis in individual patients based on profiles of risk indicators. The high risk category predicted by this calculator can inform research criteria going forward. Method Subjects were 596 CHR participants from the second phase of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS 2) who were followed up to the time of conversion to psychosis or last contact (up to 2 years). Our scope was limited to predictors supported by prior studies and readily obtainable in general clinical settings. Time-to-event regression was used to build a multivariate model predicting conversion, with internal validation using 1000 bootstrap resamples. Results The 2-year probability of conversion to psychosis in this sample was 16%. Higher levels of unusual thought content and suspiciousness, greater decline in social functioning, lower verbal learning and memory performance, slower speed of processing, and younger age at baseline each contributed to individual risk for psychosis, while stressful life events, traumas, and family history of schizophrenia were not significant predictors. The multivariate model achieved a Concordance index of 0.71, and was validated in an independent external dataset. The results are instantiated in a web-based risk prediction tool envisioned to be most useful in research protocols involving the psychosis prodrome. Conclusions A risk calculator comparable in accuracy to those for cardiovascular disease and cancer is available to predict individualized conversion risks in newly ascertained CHR cases. Given that the risk calculator can only be validly applied for patients who screen positive on the Structured Clinical Interview for Psychosis Risk Syndromes, which requires training to administer, it's most immediate uses will be in research on psychosis risk factors and in research driven clinical (prevention) trials.

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Treatment and prevention studies over the past decade have enrolled patients believed to be at risk for future psychosis. These patients were considered at risk for psychosis by virtue of meeting research criteria derived from retrospective accounts of the psychosis prodrome. This study evaluated the diagnostic validity of the prospective "prodromal risk syndrome" construct. Patients assessed by the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes as meeting criteria of prodromal syndromes (n = 377) from the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study were compared with normal comparison (NC, n = 196), help-seeking comparison (HSC, n = 198), familial high-risk (FHR, n = 40), and schizotypal personality disorder (SPD, n = 49) groups. Comparisons were made on variables from cross-sectional demographic, symptom, functional, comorbid diagnostic, and family history domains of assessment as well as on follow-up outcome. Prodromal risk syndrome patients as a group were robustly distinguished from NC subjects across all domains and distinguished from HSC subjects and from FHR subjects on most measures in many of these domains. Adolescent and young adult SPD patients, while distinct from prodromal patients on definitional grounds, were similar to prodromals on multiple measures, consistent with SPD in young patients possibly being an independent risk syndrome for psychosis. The strong evidence of diagnostic validity for the prodromal risk syndrome for first psychosis raises the question of its evaluation for inclusion in Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fifth Edition).

Impaired attention is commonly observed among schizophrenia patients and those at genetic risk for the disease. This article reviews over 40 studies that used various versions of the Continuous Performance Test (CPT) as the primary measure of attention. These studies of normal subjects, affected patients, and various at-risk populations demonstrate that the CPT is a psychometrically sound procedure that consistently discriminates affected patients from controls. Sufficiently difficult versions of this task have also demonstrated that impaired attention is (1) evident in schizophrenia patients regardless of clinical state, (2) detectable before illness onset, (3) apparently heritable, (4) specific--in terms of distinct profile patterns--to schizophrenia, and (5) predictive of later behavioral disturbances in susceptible individuals. Selected studies are also discussed that examine the role of attentional deficit in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia and its potential consequences for personality development. With respect to pathophysiology, preliminary data suggest that subcortical brain dysfunction has an important role in the attentional deficits tapped by the CPT. With respect to personality, an association between chronically impaired attention and deficient social skills has been found. It is concluded that the CPT is a cost-effective measure of the attentional deficit commonly found in affected schizophrenia subjects and those at risk for the disorder, and is therefore a potentially valuable screening device for preventive intervention programs.