The growth of past, present, and future forests was, is and will be affected by climate variability. This multifaceted relationship has been assessed in several regional studies, but spatially resolved, large-scale analyses are largely missing so far. Here we estimate recent changes in growth of 5800 beech trees (Fagus sylvatica L.) from 324 sites, representing the full geographic and climatic range of species. Future growth trends were predicted considering state-of-the-art climate scenarios. The validated models indicate growth declines across large region of the distribution in recent decades, and project severe future growth declines ranging from −20% to more than −50% by 2090, depending on the region and climate change scenario (i.e. CMIP6 SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Forecasted forest productivity losses are most striking towards the southern distribution limit of Fagus sylvatica, in regions where persisting atmospheric high-pressure systems are expected to increase drought severity. The projected 21st century growth changes across Europe indicate serious ecological and economic consequences that require immediate forest adaptation.

The boreal forest biome represents one of the most important terrestrial carbon stores, which gave reason to intensive research on carbon stock densities. However, such an analysis does not yet exist for the southernmost Eurosiberian boreal forests in Inner Asia. Most of these forests are located in the Mongolian forest-steppe, which is largely dominated by Larix sibirica. We quantified the carbon stock density and total carbon pool of Mongolia's boreal forests and adjacent grasslands and draw conclusions on possible future change. Mean aboveground carbon stock density in the interior of L. sibirica forests was 66 Mg C ha(-1) , which is in the upper range of values reported from boreal forests and probably due to the comparably long growing season. The density of soil organic carbon (SOC, 108 Mg C ha(-1) ) and total belowground carbon density (149 Mg C ha(-1) ) are at the lower end of the range known from boreal forests, which might be the result of higher soil temperatures and a thinner permafrost layer than in the central and northern boreal forest belt. Land use effects are especially relevant at forest edges, where mean carbon stock density was 188 Mg C ha(-1) , compared with 215 Mg C ha(-1) in the forest interior. Carbon stock density in grasslands was 144 Mg C ha(-1) . Analysis of satellite imagery of the highly fragmented forest area in the forest-steppe zone showed that Mongolia's total boreal forest area is currently 73 818 km(2) , and 22% of this area refers to forest edges (defined as the first 30 m from the edge). The total forest carbon pool of Mongolia was estimated at ~ 1.5-1.7 Pg C, a value which is likely to decrease in future with increasing deforestation and fire frequency, and global warming.

Forest fragmentation has been found to affect biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in multiple ways. We asked whether forest size and isolation in fragmented woodlands influences the climate warming sensitivity of tree growth in the southern boreal forest of the Mongolian Larix sibirica forest steppe, a naturally fragmented woodland embedded in grassland, which is highly affected by warming, drought, and increasing anthropogenic forest destruction in recent time. We examined the influence of stand size and stand isolation on the growth performance of larch in forests of four different size classes located in a woodland-dominated forest-steppe area and small forest patches in a grassland-dominated area. We found increasing climate sensitivity and decreasing first-order autocorrelation of annual stemwood increment with decreasing stand size. Stemwood increment increased with previous year's June and August precipitation in the three smallest forest size classes, but not in the largest forests. In the grassland-dominated area, the tree growth dependence on summer rainfall was highest. Missing ring frequency has strongly increased since the 1970s in small, but not in large forests. In the grassland-dominated area, the increase was much greater than in the forest-dominated landscape. Forest regeneration decreased with decreasing stand size and was scarce or absent in the smallest forests. Our results suggest that the larch trees in small and isolated forest patches are far more susceptible to climate warming than in large continuous forests pointing to a grim future for the forests in this strongly warming region of the boreal forest that is also under high land use pressure.

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Increasing exposure to climate warming-related drought and heat threatens forest vitality in many regions on earth, with the trees' vulnerability likely depending on local climatic aridity, recent climate trends, edaphic conditions, and the drought acclimatization and adaptation of populations. Studies exploring tree species' vulnerability to climate change often have a local focus or model the species' entire distribution range, which hampers the separation of climatic and edaphic drivers of drought and heat vulnerability. We compared recent radial growth trends and the sensitivity of growth to drought and heat in central populations of a widespread and naturally dominant tree species in Europe, European beech (Fagus sylvatica), at 30 forest sites across a steep precipitation gradient (500-850 mm year −1 ) of short length to assess the species' adaptive potential. Size-standardized basal area increment remained more constant during the period of accelerated warming since the early 1980s in populations with >360 mm growing season precipitation (April-September), while growth trends were negative at sites with <360 mm. Climatic drought in June appeared as the most influential climatic factor affecting radial growth, with a stronger effect at drier sites.A decadal decrease in the climatic water balance of the summer was identified as the most important factor leading to growth decline, which is amplified by higher stem densities. Inter-annual growth variability has increased since the early 1980s, and variability is generally higher at drier and sandier sites. Similarly, within-population growth synchrony is higher at sandier sites and has increased with a decrease in the June climatic water balance. Our results caution against predicting the drought vulnerability of trees solely from climate projections, as soil properties emerged as an important modulating factor. We conclude that beech is facing recent growth decline at drier sites in the centre of its distribution range, driven by climate change-related climate aridification.

Xylem embolism resistance has been identified as a key trait with a causal relation to drought-induced tree mortality, but not much is known about its intra-specific trait variability (ITV) in dependence on environmental variation. We measured xylem safety and efficiency in 300 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees across 30 sites in Central Europe, covering a precipitation reduction from 886 to 522 mm year−1. A broad range of variables that might affect embolism resistance in mature trees, including climatic and soil water availability, competition, and branch age, were examined. The average P50 value varied by up to 1 MPa between sites. Neither climatic aridity nor structural variables had a significant influence on P50. However, P50 was less negative for trees with a higher soil water storage capacity, and positively related to branch age, while specific conductivity (Ks) was not significantly associated with either of these variables. The greatest part of the ITV for xylem safety and efficiency was attributed to random variability within populations. We conclude that the influence of site water availability on P50 and Ks is low in European beech, and that the high degree of within-population variability for P50, partly due to variation in branch age, hampers the identification of a clear environmental signal.

Recent severe droughts and climate change projections have caused rising worries about the impacts of a warmer and drier climate on forests and the future of timber production. While recent trends in thermal and hydrometeorological climate factors have been studied in many regions on earth, less is known about long-term change in climate variables most relevant for tree health and productivity, i.e., temperature (T), precipitation (P), climatic water balance (CWB), and SPEI aridity index in early and mid-summer, when leaf unfolding and peak stem growth take place. Here, we analyze T, P, CWB, and SPEI trends separately for all growing season months (April-September) during the 1948–1982 (before the recent warming) and 1983–2017 periods (after the onset of warming) in their spatial variation across the North German Lowlands based on a dense climate station network. While trends in thermal and hydrometeorological variables were weak from 1948 to 1982, we find a significant decrease in April precipitation and increase in July precipitation from 1983 to 2017 throughout much of the study region, while June precipitation has decreased locally by 10 mm or more (or up to 20%). The cumulated growing-season CWB has deteriorated by up to 30 mm from 1948–1982 to 1983–2017 in most of the region except at the North Sea coast, where it became more favorable. Recent climate aridification is more pronounced in the drier South-east of the study region with a more continental climate, as indicated by stronger negative P, CWB, and SPEI trends for April, May, and June. We conclude that water availability especially in the physiologically important months April and June has deteriorated in the larger part of the North German Lowlands since the 1980s, increasingly impairing hydrometeorological forest growth conditions. The identified trends may serve as early-warning signals of anticipated future loss in tree vitality.

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