OBJECTIVE To review and critically appraise published and preprint reports of prediction models for diagnosing coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in patients with suspected infection, for prognosis of patients with covid-19, and for detecting people in the general population at increased risk of becoming infected with covid-19 or being admitted to hospital with the disease. DESIGNLiving systematic review and critical appraisal. DATA SOURCESPubMed and Embase through Ovid, Arxiv, medRxiv, and bioRxiv up to 7 April 2020.Cite this as: BMJ 2020;369:m1328 http://dx.
BackgroundNon-communicable diseases (NCDs) are leading causes of premature disability and death worldwide. However, the lifetime risk of developing any NCD is unknown, as are the effects of shared common risk factors on this risk.Methods and findingsBetween July 6, 1989, and January 1, 2012, we followed participants from the prospective Rotterdam Study aged 45 years and older who were free from NCDs at baseline for incident stroke, heart disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, and neurodegenerative disease. We quantified occurrence/co-occurrence and remaining lifetime risk of any NCD in a competing risk framework. We additionally studied the lifetime risk of any NCD, age at onset, and overall life expectancy for strata of 3 shared risk factors at baseline: smoking, hypertension, and overweight. During 75,354 person-years of follow-up from a total of 9,061 participants (mean age 63.9 years, 60.1% women), 814 participants were diagnosed with stroke, 1,571 with heart disease, 625 with diabetes, 1,004 with chronic respiratory disease, 1,538 with cancer, and 1,065 with neurodegenerative disease. NCDs tended to co-occur substantially, with 1,563 participants (33.7% of those who developed any NCD) diagnosed with multiple diseases during follow-up. The lifetime risk of any NCD from the age of 45 years onwards was 94.0% (95% CI 92.9%–95.1%) for men and 92.8% (95% CI 91.8%–93.8%) for women. These risks remained high (>90.0%) even for those without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight. Absence of smoking, hypertension, and overweight was associated with a 9.0-year delay (95% CI 6.3–11.6) in the age at onset of any NCD. Furthermore, the overall life expectancy for participants without these risk factors was 6.0 years (95% CI 5.2–6.8) longer than for those with all 3 risk factors. Participants aged 45 years and older without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight at baseline spent 21.6% of their remaining lifetime with 1 or more NCDs, compared to 31.8% of their remaining life for participants with all of these risk factors at baseline. This difference corresponds to a 2-year compression of morbidity of NCDs. Limitations of this study include potential residual confounding, unmeasured changes in risk factor profiles during follow-up, and potentially limited generalisability to different healthcare settings and populations not of European descent.ConclusionsOur study suggests that in this western European community, 9 out of 10 individuals aged 45 years and older develop an NCD during their remaining lifetime. Among those individuals who develop an NCD, at least a third are subsequently diagnosed with multiple NCDs. Absence of 3 common shared risk factors is associated with compression of morbidity of NCDs. These findings underscore the importance of avoidance of these common shared risk factors to reduce the premature morbidity and mortality attributable to NCDs.
The purpose of this study was to investigate whether fasting serum insulin levels, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and insulin-to-glucose ratio (IGR) were associated with incident hypertension. In a prospective study, 4093 Iranian participants (1725 men and 2368 women) without hypertension and known diabetes at baseline (1999-2001) were followed for a median of 8.9 years. Regular follow-up examinations were performed at 3-year intervals. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of incident hypertension adjusting for sex, and in sex-stratified models. During the study, 896 incident cases of hypertension (432 men and 464 women) were identified (total incident rate: 27.5 per 1000 person-years). In the multivariable models, serum insulin level, HOMA-IR and IGR were positively associated with hypertension incidence, adjusting for sex. In the sex-stratified analyses, after adjusting for potential confounders, women in the highest quartile of insulin, HOMA-IR and IG had a significantly higher incidence of hypertension, compared with those in the lowest quartile (HR: 1.7 (95% CI 1.26-2.30); HR: 1.80 (95% CI 1.31-2.40) and HR: 1.67 (95% CI 1.26-2.22), respectively); among men, these relations were also significant, until including waist circumference and body mass index in the models (HR: 1.17 (95% CI 0.85-1.62), HR: 1.25 (95% CI 0.91-1.73) and HR: 1.06 (95% CI 0.77-1.45), respectively). Higher fasting serum insulin levels, HOMA-IR and IGR were associated with incident hypertension among women, whereas these associations were not significant after adjusting for obesity measures in men.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.