We propose a model of job search with reference-dependent preferences, with loss aversion relative to recent income (the reference point). In this model, newly unemployed individuals search hard since consumption is below their reference point. Over time, though, they get used to lower income and thus reduce their search effort. In anticipation of a benefit cut, their search effort rises again, then declines once they get accustomed to the lower postcut benefit level. The model fits the typical pattern of exit from unemployment, even with no unobserved heterogeneity. To distinguish between this and other models, we use a unique reform in the unemployment insurance (UI) benefit path. In 2005, Hungary switched from a single-step UI system to a two-step system, with overall generosity unchanged. The system generated increased hazard rates in anticipation of, and especially following, benefit cuts in ways the standard model has a hard time explaining. We estimate a model with optimal consumption, endogenous search effort, and unobserved heterogeneity. The reference-dependent model fits the hazard rates substantially better than plausible versions of the standard model, including habit formation. Our estimates indicate a slow-adjusting reference point and substantial impatience, likely reflecting present-bias.

We estimate the effect of front-loading unemployment benefit payments on nonemployment duration and reemployment wages. Exploiting a sharp change in the path of benefits for those who claimed unemployment benefits after November 1, 2005 in Hungary, we show that nonemployment duration fell by two weeks, while reemployment wages rose by 1.4 percent as a result of front-loading. We show that these behavioral responses were large enough to offset the mechanical cost increase of the unemployment insurance. We argue that our results indicate that benefit front-loading was a Pareto improving policy reform as both unemployed and employed workers were made better off. (JEL D91, J31, J64, J65)

We propose a model of job search with reference-dependent preferences, where the reference point is given by recent income. Newly unemployed individuals search hard given that they are at a loss, but over time they get used to lower income, and thus reduce their search effort. In anticipation of a benefit cut their search effort rises again, then declines once they get used to the lower benefit level. The model fits the typical pattern of the exit from unemployment, even with no unobserved heterogeneity. The model also makes distinguishing predictions regarding the response to benefit changes, which we evaluate using a unique reform. In 2005, Hungary switched from a single-step UI system to a two-step system, with unchanged overall generosity. The system generated increased hazard rates in anticipation of, and especially following, benefit cuts in ways the standard model has a hard time explaining. We estimate a model with optimal consumption and endogenous search effort, as well as unobserved heterogeneity. The referencedependent model fits the hazard rates substantially better than most versions of the standard model. We estimate a slow-adjusting reference point and substantial impatience, likely reflecting present-bias. Habit formation and a variety of alternative models do not match the fit of the reference-dependent model. We discuss one model which also fits well, but is at odds with calibrated values and other evidence. Unemployment insurance programs in most Western countries follow a common design. The benefits are set at a constant replacement rate for a fixed period, typically followed by lower benefits under unemployment assistance. In such systems, the hazard rate from unemployment typically declines from an initial peak the longer workers are unemployed, surges at unemployment exhaustion, and declines thereafter. This has been shown in a variety of settings, such as in the United States (Katz and Meyer, 1990), Hungary (Micklewright and Nagy, 1999), Austria (Card et al., 2007a), Slovenia (van Ours and Vodopivec, 2008), Germany (Schmieder et al., 2012a), and France (Le Barbanchon, 2012). StefanoIt is well-known that a basic job search model a la Mortensen (1986) and van den Berg (1990) is unable to match this pattern. This model predicts an increasing exit hazard up until benefit expiration, with a constant exit rate thereafter. To match the time path, job search models add unobserved heterogeneity among workers. More productive workers are more likely to find a job initially, leading to a decrease in the hazard over time as the workers still unemployed are predominantly of the less productive type.In this paper, we propose, and test, a behavioral model of job search which can account for this time path of unemployment even in the absence of unobserved heterogeneity. Namely, we incorporate one of the best established facts in psychology, that people's perceptions and decisions are influenced by relative comparisons. We assume that workers have referencedependent preferences over their utility...

Abstract. We estimate a double hurdle (DH) model of the Hungarian wage distribution assuming censoring at the minimum wage and wage under-reporting (i.e. compensation consisting of the minimum wage, subject to taxation, and an unreported cash supplement). We estimate the probability of under-reporting for minimum wage earners, simulate their genuine earnings and classify them and their employers as 'cheaters' and 'non-cheaters'. In the possession of the classification we check how cheaters and non-cheaters reacted to the introduction of a minimum social security contribution base, equal to 200 per cent of the minimum wage, in 2007. The findings suggest that cheaters were more likely to raise the wages of their minimum wage earners to 200 per cent of the minimum wage thereby reducing the risk of tax audit. Cheating firms also experienced faster average wage growth and slower output growth. The results suggest that the DH model is able to identify the loci of wage under-reporting with some precision.

Köllő János-reizer Balázs a koronavírus-járvány első hullámának hatása a foglalkoztatásra és a vállalatok árbevételére Tanulmányunkban a KSH munkaerő-felmérése és havi teljesítménystatisztikája segítségével vizsgáljuk a koronavírus-járvány első hullámának azonnali gazdasági hatásait. A mikroadatok vizsgálata lehetővé teszi, hogy az aggregált statisztikáknál részletesebben mérjük fel a gazdasági visszaesés által okozott károkat. Az eredmények a 2008-2009-esnél is súlyosabb visszaesésre és az egyenlőtlenség növekedésére utalnak. A diplomások az átlagnál jobban vészelték át a válságot: körükben kisebb volt az állásvesztés valószínűsége, nagyobb arányban tértek át távmunkára, és az őket alkalmazó cégek árbevétele is kevesebbet esett. A külföldi tulajdonú exportáló vállalatok árbevétele az átlagosnál nagyobbat zuhant márciusban, de nyárra már megközelítette a kora tavaszi értékét. Ezzel szemben a magyar tulajdonú cégek viszszaesése lassabb, de tartósabb volt. * Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E0, J0, L0. * Köszönjük a KrTK KTi szeminárium résztvevőinek és az anonim bírálónak a dolgozathoz kapcsolódó észrevételeit, Bálint Mónika és Neubrandt Martin kiváló asszisztensi munkáját.