a b s t r a c tEarly warning information on crop yield and production are very crucial for both farmers and decisionmakers. In this study, we assess the skill and the reliability of the Integrated Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (ICCYF), a regional crop yield forecasting tool, at different temporal (i.e. 1-3 months before harvest) and spatial (i.e. census agricultural region -CAR, provincial and national) scales across Canada. A distinct feature of the ICCYF is that it generates in-season yield forecasts well before the end of the growing season and provides a probability distribution of the forecasted yields. The ICCYF integrates climate, remote sensing derived vegetation indices, soil and crop information through a physical process-based soil water budget model and statistical algorithms. The model was evaluated against yield survey data of spring wheat, barley and canola during the 1987-2012 period. Our results showed that the ICCYF performance exhibited a strong spatial pattern at both CAR and provincial scales. Model performance was better from regions with a good coverage of climate stations and a high percentage of cropped area. On average, the model coefficient of determination at CAR level was 66%, 51% and 67%, for spring wheat, barley and canola, respectively. Skilful forecasts (i.e. model efficiency index > 0) were achieved in 70% of the CARs for spring wheat and canola, and 43% for barley (low values observed in CAR with small harvested area). At the provincial scale, the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) of the September forecasts ranged from 7% to 16%, 7% to14%, and 6% to 14% for spring wheat, barley and canola, respectively. For forecasts at the national scale, MAPE values (i.e. 8%, 5% and 9% for the three respective crops) were considerably smaller than the corresponding historical coefficients of variation (i.e. 17%, 10% and 17% for the three crops). Overall, the ICCYF performed better for spring wheat than for canola and barley at all the three spatial scales. Skilful forecasts were achieved by mid-August, giving a lead time of about 1 month before harvest and about 3-4 months before the final release of official survey results. As such, the ICCYF could be used as a complementary tool for the traditional survey method, especially in areas where it is not practical to conduct such surveys.Crown
No abstract
A direct-processing approach to river system floodplain delineation is developed. Floodplain zones of part of the South Nation River system, located just east of Ottawa, Ontario, are mapped in two dimensions and three dimensions by integrating the hydraulic model of the choice with geographic information systems (GIS). The first objective was to construct and validate a Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) river network model of the system using existing HEC-2 model-generated data. Next, HEC-RAS simulations were performed to generate water surface profiles throughout the system for six different design storm events. The in-channel spatial data of HEC-RAS were then geo-referenced and mapped in the GIS domain and integrated with digital elevation model (DEM) over-bank data to build a triangular irregular network (TIN) terrain model. In the final step, floodplain zones for the six design storms were reproduced in three dimensions by overlaying the integrated terrain model for the region with the corresponding water surface TIN.Key words: river, floodplain, delineation, GIS-approach, HEC-2 model, HEC-RAS model, data query.
Huffman, T., Ogston, R., Fisette, T., Daneshfar, B., Gasser, P-Y., White, L., Maloley, M. and Chenier, R. 2006. Canadian agricultural land-use and land management data for Kyoto reporting. Can. J. Soil Sci. 86: 431-439. The land use and management data requirements for assessing, monitoring and reporting on the impact of agricultural production practices on the environment, especially in a country as large as Canada, are considerable. In view of the fact that environmental assessments are a relatively new phenomenon, data collection activities targeted toward these needs are not widespread. As a result, we find it necessary to acquire and integrate a variety of data sources with differing time lines, spatial scales and sampling frameworks. This paper uses our current activities with respect to Kyoto reporting as a focus to present and discuss the types of data required and the spatial analysis and integration procedures being developed to provide them. The essential data for this activity include the area of crop and land use types, land use changes since 1990, farm and land management practices and biomass production. The spatial framework selected for national analysis is the Soil Landscapes of Canada, and the primary existing data sources are the Census of Agriculture, sample-derived yield estimates and satellite-based land cover products. These are supplemented with detailed, multi-season, multi-year satellite image interpretations conducted at an ecologically and statistically stratified sample of sites across the country. The use of these data in preparing an account of greenhouse gas sources and sinks identified a number of gaps and problems, and a brief outline of future work designed to improve the data inputs is presented.
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