This paper (Part 1) describes the development of a new online system that estimates long-term carrying capacity (LTCC) for grazing properties across Queensland, Australia. High year-to-year and multi-year rainfall variability is a dominating feature of the climate of Queensland’s grazing lands, and poses major challenges for extensive livestock production. The use of LTCC is one approach used by graziers to reduce the impact of rainfall variability on land condition and financial performance. Over the past 30 years, scientists, graziers and their advisors have developed a simple approach to calculating LTCC ((average annual pasture growth × safe pasture utilisation) ÷ annual animal intake). This approach has been successful at a property scale (regional south-west Queensland) and in a wider application through Grazing Land Management (GLM) regional workshops. We have built on these experiences to develop an online system (as described in detail in Part 2; Zhang et al. 2021; this issue) that incorporates the simple LTCC approach with advances in technology and grazing science to provide LTCC information for Queensland grazing properties. Features of the LTCC system are: (1) assimilation of spatial datasets (cadastral data, grazing land types, climate data, remotely-sensed woody vegetation cover); (2) a pasture growth simulation model; (3) land type parameter sets of biophysical attributes; and (4) estimates of safe pasture utilisation. The ‘FORAGE LTCC report’ is a major product of the system, describing individual property information that allows detailed analysis and explanation of the components of the LTCC calculation by land type and land condition. The online system rapidly analyses property spatial data and calculates paddock/property LTCC information. For the 10 months between November 2020 and August 2021, over 4000 grazing property reports have been requested in Queensland, and has proven to be a sound basis for ‘discussion support’ with grazier managers and their advisors.
A combination of field data and models have been used to estimate long-term carrying capacity (LTCC) of domestic livestock in Queensland grazing lands. These methods have been synthesised and coupled with recent developments in science and information technology to provide a fully-automated approach of modelling LTCC through the FORAGE online system. In this study, the GRASP model was used to simulate pasture growth with parameter sets and safe pasture utilisation rates defined for 225 land types across Queensland. Distance to water points was used to assess the accessibility of pastures to livestock. Spatial analysis classified the property into unique areas based on paddock, land type and distance to water points, which estimated pasture growth, pasture utilisation and accessibility at a sub-paddock scale. Thirteen foliage projective cover (FPC) classes were used in modelling the pasture system to deal with the non-linear relationship between tree and grass interactions. As 'proof of concept', remotely-sensed individual-date green ground cover data were used to optimise the GRASP model parameters to improve the model performance, and a Monte Carlo analysis provided uncertainty estimates for model outcomes. The framework provides an efficient and standardised method for estimating LTCC. To test the system, LTCCs from 43 'benchmark' properties were compared with simulated LTCCs, and 65% of the modelled LTCCs were within AE 25% of the benchmark LTCCs. Due to uncertainties in model inputs at the property scale and in model simulation, the modelled LTCC should be used as a starting point for further refinement of actual property LTCC.
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