HBeAg seroconversion marks an important spontaneous change and treatment end-point for HBeAg-positive patients and is a pre-requisite for HBsAg loss or functional cure. In this retrospective analysis, we aimed to identify predictors of seroconversion using serum quantitative HBsAg and HBcrAg, in HBeAg-positive patients treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NA). Data and samples from 118 HBeAg-positive adults (genotypes A-G) started on NA between Jan 2005 and Sept 2016 were retrospectively analysed at several time-points. The predictive power of on-treatment levels of HBsAg and HBcrAg was determined using receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis and cut-off values determined by maximized Youden's index. About 36.4% of patients achieved HBeAg seroconversion after a median of 39 months' treatment. On treatment kinetics of HBV DNA, HBsAg and HBcrAg differed between HBeAg seroconverters and nonseroconverters. A combination of HBsAg and HBcrAg had the greatest predictive value for HBeAg seroconversion: at 6 months, HBsAg of 3.9 log IU/mL and HBcrAg of 5.7 log U/mL had a sensitivity of 71.4%, specificity of 79.5%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 65.2% and negative predictive value (NPV) of 83.8%, with AUROC of 0.769 (0.668, 0.869; 95%CI), and at 12 months, HBsAg 3.8 log IU/mL and HBcrAg 5.5 log U/mL had a sensitivity of 73.7%, specificity of 79.5%, PPV of 63.6% and NPV of 86.1%, with AUROC 0.807 (0.713, 0.901; 95% CI). In conclusion, our results may be used to identify patients who are unlikely to achieve treatment end-points, which will be important as the future management of chronic hepatitis B looks to therapies that offer functional cure.

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Tubular renal toxicity is a side-effect of long-term therapy with nucleos(t)ide analogue(s) (NA) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB). There are no established surrogate markers in plasma of early NA-related toxicity. Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) is a protein produced by tubular cells following renal damage. We aimed therefore to retrospectively compare conventional renal markers (estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) and urinary protein/creatinine ratio uPCR) with a sensitive biomarker (NGAL) in CHB patients on long-term NA therapy and assess the ability of new markers to predict NA-related renal toxicity (new onset of nonalbumin proteinuria). A total of 192 naïve CHB patients (median age 41 years, 78% males, 25% HBeAg+, 35% cirrhosis) were NA treated for at least 5 years (median 8.34 years, range 5.54-11.1 years). The eGFR and uPCR were compared at baseline and last clinical visit with serum NGAL concentrations measured by ELISA at same time-points and assessed according to the presence/absence of nonalbumin proteinuria at last visit. While baseline and last visit eGFR were similar (median:78 vs 84 mL/min), serum NGAL concentrations increased during therapy (median:9.4 vs 16.4 ng/mL, P < .05). The proportion of patients with proteinuria (uPCR > 15) increased between baseline and last visit (4.6% vs 21.4%, P < .05), with 30 (16%) patients having de novo nonalbumin proteinuria at last visit. High baseline NGAL concentrations were exclusive to patients with de novo nonalbumin proteinuria (median:31.7 vs 7.8 ng/mL, P < .01) and baseline NGAL levels >25 mg/mL were predictive of nonalbumin proteinuria at last visit (AUROC = 0.813). In conclusion, serum NGAL can act as a surrogate marker of early renal injury (de novo nonalbumin proteinuria) in CHB on long-term NA therapy.