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Abstract. The international research project RECONCILE has addressed central questions regarding polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify some of the most relevant yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes and thereby improve prognostic modelling capabilities to realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to climate change. This overview paper outlines the scope and the general approach of RECONCILE, and it provides a summary of observations and modelling in 2010 and 2011 that have generated an in many respects unprecedented dataset to study processes in the Arctic winter stratosphere. Principally, it summarises important outcomes of RECONCILE including (i) better constraints and enhanced consistency on the set of parameters governing catalytic ozone destruction cycles, (ii) a better understanding of the role of cold binary aerosols in heterogeneous chlorine activation, (iii) an improved scheme of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) processes that includes heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and ice on non-volatile background aerosol leading to better model parameterisations with respect to denitrification, and (iv) long transient simulations with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) updated based on the results of RECONCILE that better reproduce past ozone trends in Antarctica and are deemed to produce more reliable predictions of future ozone trends. The process studies and the global simulations conducted in RECONCILE show that in the Arctic, ozone depletion uncertainties in the chemical and microphysical processes are now clearly smaller than the sensitivity to dynamic variability.

[1] Here we report on estimates of the changes in stratospheric water vapour (SWV) due to methane oxidation based on observational data. Above the tropopause oxidation of methane results in a decrease in its mixing ratio with altitude and this is a major source for SWV. The vertical profile of SWV changes from methane oxidation is presented here using satellite observations of the vertical profile of methane. Trends in the SWV are shown to be small in the lower stratosphere, but can reach 0.7 ppbv at 30 km at high latitudes over the period 1950 -2000. The radiative forcing for this indirect effect of methane increase over the industrial era is estimated to be slightly weaker than 0.1 Wm À2 which implies a larger contribution of water vapour to the methane global warming potential than used in recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments. Our estimate considers only chemical changes and not SWV of dynamical causes. Importantly, we find substantial differences in the temperature change in the stratosphere for a homogeneous change in SWV and SWV change from methane oxidation. This has implications for trend analysis of SWV and understanding and attribution of the stratospheric temperature trend. Citation: Myhre, G., J. S. Nilsen, L. Gulstad, K. P. Shine, B. Rognerud, and I. S. A. Isaksen (2007), Radiative forcing due to stratospheric water vapour from

Arctic column ozone reached record low values (∼310 DU) during March of 2011, exposing Arctic ecosystems to enhanced UV‐B. We identify the cause of this anomaly using the Oslo CTM2 atmospheric chemistry model driven by ECMWF meteorology to simulate Arctic ozone from 1998 through 2011. CTM2 successfully reproduces the variability in column ozone, from week to week, and from year to year, correctly identifying 2011 as an extreme anomaly over the period. By comparing parallel model simulations, one with all Arctic ozone chemistry turned off on January 1, we find that chemical ozone loss in 2011 is enhanced relative to previous years, but it accounted for only 23% of the anomaly. Weakened transport of ozone from middle latitudes, concurrent with an anomalously strong polar vortex, was the primary cause of the low ozone When the zonal winds relaxed in mid‐March 2011, Arctic column ozone quickly recovered.

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