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Steady-state forecasting is indispensable for power system planning and operation. A forecasting model for inputs considering their historical record is a preliminary step for such type of studies. Since the historical data quality is decisive in edifice an accurate forecasting model, data preprocessing is essential. Primarily, the quality of raw data is affected by the presence of outliers, and preprocessing refers to outlier detection and correction. In this paper, an effort is made to improve the existing sliding window prediction-based preprocessing method. The recommended reforms are the calculation of appropriate window width and a new outlier correction approach. The proposed method denoted as improved sliding window prediction-based preprocessing is applied to the historical data of PV generation, load power, and the ambient temperature of different time-steps collected from various places in the United States and India. Firstly, the method's efficacy through detailed result analysis demonstrating the proposed preprocessing as a better way than its precursor and k-nearest neighbor approach is presented. Later, the improved out-of-sample forecasting accuracy canonizes the proposed method's concert compared to both the above techniques and the case without preprocessing.

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Summary The probabilistic steady‐state forecasting of a PV‐integrated power system requires a suitable forecasting model capable of accurately characterizing the uncertainties and correlations among multivariate inputs. The critical and foremost difficulties in the development of such a model include the accurate representation of the characterizing features such as complex nonstationary pattern, non‐Gaussianity, and spatial and temporal correlations. This paper aims at developing an improved high‐dimensional multivariate spatiotemporal model through enhanced preprocessing, transformation techniques, principal component analysis, and a suitable time series model that is capable of accurately modeling the trend in the variance of uncertain inputs. The proposed model is applied to the probabilistic load flow carried out on the modified Indian utility 62‐bus transmission system using temperature‐augmented system model for an operational planning study. A detailed discussion of various results has indicated the effectiveness of the proposed model in capturing the aforesaid characterizing features of uncertain inputs.

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