Abstract. We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850-1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

High-alpine life forms and ecosystems exist at the limits of habitable environments, and thus, are especially sensitive to environmental change. Here we report a recent increase in the elevational limit of anurans following glacial retreat in the tropical Peruvian Andes. Three species have colonized ponds in recently deglaciated terrain at new record elevations for amphibians worldwide (5244-5400 m). Two of these species were also found to be infected with Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), an emerging fungal pathogen causally associated with global amphibian declines, including the disappearance of several Latin American species. The presence of this pathogen was associated with elevated mortality rates of at least one species. These results represent the first evidence of upward expansion of anurans to newly available habitat brought about by recent deglaciation. Furthermore, the large increase in the upper limit of known Bd infections, previously reported as 4112 m in Ecuador, to 5348 m in this study, also expands the spatial domain of potential Bd pathogenicity to encompass virtually all high elevation anuran habitats in the tropical Andes.

Funder: NERC RONO: NE/D012996/1The African Humid Period of the early to mid-Holocene (12,000?5000 years ago) had dramatic ecological and societal consequences, including the expansion of vegetation and civilization into the ?green Sahara.? While the humid period itself is well documented throughout northern and equatorial Africa, mechanisms behind observed regional variability in the timing and magnitude of the humid period remain disputed. This paper presents a new hydrogen isotope record from leaf waxes (?Dwax) in a 15,000-year sediment core from Lake Tana, Ethiopia (12?N, 37?E) to provide insight into the timing, duration, and intensity of the African Humid Period over northeastern Africa. ?Dwax at Lake Tana ranges between ?80? and ?170?, with an abrupt transition from D-enriched to D-depleted waxes between 13,000?11,500 years before present (13?11.5 ka). A similarly abrupt transition from D-depleted to D-enriched waxes occurs ca 8.5?8 ka and is followed by generally D-enriched waxes throughout the late Holocene. Trends in ?Dwax covary with changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation and reflect increased precipitation at Lake Tana during the AHP; however, the transition from D-depleted to D-enriched waxes occurs earlier at Lake Tana (ca 8 ka, vs 5 ka) than in many other regional records, and the amplitude of D-depletion during the AHP is larger at Lake Tana as well. We attribute this early enrichment to a reduction of moisture derived from westerly sources (the Congo Basin and Atlantic Ocean) which we suggest are D-depleted relative to moisture sourced from the east (Indian Ocean) and the north (Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea). Our new record highlights the importance of both the northward migration of the tropical rain belt as well as east-west migration of the Congo Air Boundary to precipitation source and amount during the African Humid Period.authorsversionPeer reviewe

The Indo-Pacific warm pool houses the largest zone of deep atmospheric convection on Earth and plays a critical role in global climate variations. Despite the region's importance, changes in Indo-Pacific hydroclimate on orbital timescales remain poorly constrained. Here we present high-resolution geochemical records of surface runoff and vegetation from sediment cores from Lake Towuti, on the island of Sulawesi in central Indonesia, that continuously span the past 60,000 y. We show that wet conditions and rainforest ecosystems on Sulawesi present during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS3) and the Holocene were interrupted by severe drying between ∼33,000 and 16,000 y B.P. when Northern Hemisphere ice sheets expanded and global temperatures cooled. Our record reveals little direct influence of precessional orbital forcing on regional climate, and the similarity between MIS3 and Holocene climates observed in Lake Towuti suggests that exposure of the Sunda Shelf has a weaker influence on regional hydroclimate and terrestrial ecosystems than suggested previously. We infer that hydrological variability in this part of Indonesia varies strongly in response to high-latitude climate forcing, likely through reorganizations of the monsoons and the position of the intertropical convergence zone. These findings suggest an important role for the tropical western Pacific in amplifying glacial-interglacial climate variability.tropical Pacific | paleoclimate | geochemistry | paleoecology

We describe the concept, strategy, and initial results of the Millennium Villages Project and implications regarding sustainability and scalability. Our underlying hypothesis is that the interacting crises of agriculture, health, and infrastructure in rural Africa can be overcome through targeted public-sector investments to raise rural productivity and, thereby, to increased private-sector saving and investments. This is carried out by empowering impoverished communities with science-based interventions. Seventy-eight Millennium Villages have been initiated in 12 sites in 10 African countries, each representing a major agroecological zone. In early results, the research villages in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Malawi have reduced malaria prevalence, met caloric requirements, generated crop surpluses, enabled school feeding programs, and provided cash earnings for farm families.

During the last deglaciation, wetter conditions developed abruptly ~14,700 years ago in southeastern equatorial and northern Africa and continued into the Holocene. Explaining the abrupt onset and hemispheric coherence of this early African Humid Period is challenging due to opposing seasonal insolation patterns. In this work, we use a transient simulation with a climate model that provides a mechanistic understanding of deglacial tropical African precipitation changes. Our results show that meltwater-induced reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) during the early deglaciation suppressed precipitation in both regions. Once the AMOC reestablished, wetter conditions developed north of the equator in response to high summer insolation and increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, whereas wetter conditions south of the equator were a response primarily to the GHG increase.

The Last Glacial Maximum was cool and dry over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP), a key region driving global oceanic-atmospheric circulation. Both low-and high-latitude teleconnections with insolation, ice sheets, and sea level have been suggested to explain the pervasive aridity observed in paleoecological and geomorphic data. However, proxies tracking the Hand O-isotopic composition of rainfall (e.g., speleothems, sedimentary biomarkers) suggest muted aridity or even wetter conditions than the present, complicating interpretations of glacial IPWP climate. Here we use multiproxy reconstructions from lake sediments and modern rainfall isotopic measurements from central Indonesia to show that, contrary to the classical "amount effect," intensified Australian-Indonesian monsoon circulation drove lighter Hand Oisotopic composition of IPWP rainfall during the LGM, while at the same time, dry conditions prevailed. Precipitation isotopes are particularly sensitive to the apparent increase in monsoon circulation and perhaps also decreased moisture residence time implied by our data, explaining contrasts among proxy records while illuminating glacial IPWP atmospheric circulation, a key target for climate models.

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