Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by lessening the impact of future land-use activities on biodiversity within hotspots.

Policy makers, government planners and agricultural market participants in Pakistan require accurate and timely information about wheat yield and production. Punjab Province is by far the most important wheat producing region in the country. The manual collection of field data and data processing for crop forecasting by the provincial government requires significant amounts of time before official reports can be released. Several studies have shown that wheat yield can be effectively forecast using satellite remote sensing data. In this study, we developed a methodology for estimating wheat yield and area for Punjab Province from freely available Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery approximately six weeks before harvest. Wheat yield was derived by regressing reported yield values against time series of four different peak-season MODIS-derived vegetation indices. We also tested deriving wheat area from the same MODIS time series using a regression-tree approach. Among the four evaluated indices, WDRVI provided more consistent and accurate yield forecasts compared to NDVI, EVI2 and saturation-adjusted normalized difference vegetation index (SANDVI). The lowest RMSE values at the district level for forecast versus reported yield were found when using six or more years of training data. 9654 reported values. Absolute deviations of wheat area and production forecasts from reported values were slightly greater compared to using the previous year's or the three-or six-year moving average values, implying that 250-m MODIS data does not provide sufficient spatial resolution for providing improved wheat area and production forecasts.

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The rural complex is the inhabited agricultural land cover mosaic found along the network of rivers and roads in the forest of the Democratic Republic of Congo. It is a product of traditional small-holder shifting cultivation. To date, thanks to its distinction from primary forest, this area has been mapped as relatively homogenous, leaving the proportions of land cover heterogeneity within it unknown. However, the success of strategies for sustainable development, including land use planning and payment for ecosystem services, such as Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation, depends on the accurate characterization of the impacts of land use on natural resources, including within the rural complex. We photo-interpreted a simple random sample of 1000 points in the established rural complex, using 3106 high resolution satellite images obtained from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, together with 406 images from Google Earth, spanning the period 2008-2016. Results indicate that nationally the established rural complex includes 5% clearings, 10% active fields, 26% fallows, 34% secondary forest, 2% wetland forest, 11% primary forest, 6% grasslands, 3% roads and settlements and 2% commercial plantations. Only a small proportion of sample points were plantations, while other commercial dynamics, such as logging and mining, were not detected in the sample. The area of current shifting cultivation accounts for 76% of the established rural complex. Added to primary forest (11%), this means that 87% of the rural complex is available for shifting cultivation. At the current clearing rate, it would take ∼18 years for a complete rotation of the rural complex to occur. Additional pressure on land results in either the cultivation of non-preferred land types within the rural complex (such as wetland forest), or expansion of agriculture into nearby primary forests, with attendant impacts on emissions, habitat loss and other ecosystems services.

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Monitoring and forecasting crop yields is a critical component of understanding and better addressing global food security challenges. Detailed spatial information on crop-type distribution is fundamental for in-season crop condition monitoring and yields forecasting over large agricultural areas, as it enables the extraction of crop-specific signals. Yet, the availability of such data within the growing season is often limited. Within this context, this study seeks to develop a practical approach to extract a crop-specific signal for yield forecasting in cases where crop rotations are prevalent, and detailed in-season information on crop type distribution is not available. We investigated the possibility of accurately forecasting winter wheat yields by using a counter-intuitive approach, which coarsens the spatial resolution of out-of-date detailed winter wheat masks and uses them in combination with easily accessibly coarse spatial resolution remotely sensed time series data. The main idea is to explore an optimal spatial resolution at which crop type changes will be negligible due to crop rotation (so a previous seasons’ mask, which is more readily available can be used) and an informative signal can be extracted, so it can be correlated to crop yields. The study was carried out in the United States of America (USA) and utilized multiple years of NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, US Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) detailed wheat masks, and a regression-based winter wheat yield model. The results indicate that, in places where crop rotations were prevalent, coarsening the spatial scale of a crop type mask from the previous season resulted in a constant per-pixel wheat proportion over multiple seasons. This enables the consistent extraction of a crop-specific vegetation index time series that can be used for in-season monitoring and yield estimation over multiple years using a single mask. In the case of the USA, using a moderate resolution crop type mask from a previous season aggregated to 5 km resolution, resulted in a 0.7% tradeoff in accuracy relative to the control case where annually-updated detailed crop-type masks were available. These findings suggest that when detailed in-season data is not available, winter wheat yield can be accurately forecasted (within 10%) prior to harvest using a single, prior season crop mask and coarse resolution Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series data.

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Crop type maps identify the spatial distribution of crop types and underpin a large range of agricultural monitoring applications ranging from early warning of crop shortfalls, crop condition assessments, production forecasts, and damage assessment from extreme weather, to agricultural statistics, agricultural insurance, and climate mitigation and adaptation decisions. Despite their importance, harmonized, up-to-date global crop type maps of the main food commodities do not exist to date. To address this critical data gap of global-scale consistent, up-to-date crop type maps, we harmonized 24 national and regional datasets from 21 sources covering 66 countries to develop a set of Best Available Crop Specific masks (BACS) over the major production and export countries for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans, in the context of the G20 Global Agriculture Monitoring Program, GEOGLAM.