An approach to derive relationships for defining land degradation and desertification risk and developing appropriate tools for assessing the effectiveness of the various land management practices using indicators is presented in the present paper. In order to investigate which indicators are most effective in assessing the level of desertification risk, a total of 70 candidate indicators was selected providing information for the biophysical environment, socio-economic conditions, and land management characteristics. The indicators were defined in 1,672 field sites located in 17 study areas in the Mediterranean region, Eastern Europe, Latin America, Africa, and Asia. Based on an existing geo-referenced database, classes were designated for each indicator and a sensitivity score to desertification was assigned to each class based on existing research. The obtained data were analyzed for the various processes of land degradation at farm level. The derived methodology was assessed using independent indicators, such as the measured soil erosion rate, and the organic matter content of the soil. Based on regression analyses, the collected indicator set can be reduced to a number of effective indicators ranging from 8 to 17 in the various processes of land degradation. Among the most important indicators identified as affecting land degradation and desertification risk were rain seasonality, slope gradient, plant cover, rate of land abandonment, land-use intensity, and the level of policy implementation.

Indicator-based approaches are often used to monitor land degradation and desertification from the global to the very local scale. However, there is still little agreement on which indicators may best reflect both status and trends of these phenomena. In this study, various processes of land degradation and desertification have been analyzed in 17 study sites around the world using a wide set of biophysical and socioeconomic indicators. The database described earlier in this issue by Kosmas and others (Environ Manage, 2013) for defining desertification risk was further analyzed to define the most important indicators related to the following degradation processes: water erosion in various land uses, tillage erosion, soil salinization, water stress, forest fires, and overgrazing. A correlation analysis was applied to the selected indicators in order to identify the most important variables contributing to each land degradation process. The analysis indicates that the most important indicators are: (i) rain seasonality affecting water erosion, water stress, and forest fires, (ii) slope gradient affecting water erosion, tillage erosion and water stress, and (iii) water scarcity soil salinization, water stress, and forest fires. Implementation of existing regulations or policies concerned with resources development and environmental sustainability was identified as the most important indicator of land protection.

This study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of selected native species from two areas from West Asia and North Africa. Three species representing two genera were selected for assessment of their vulnerability to climate change. The first species was Salsola vermiculata L. which is common to both study areas. The second genus was represented by two species, Haloxylon salicornicum (Moq.) Bunge from the Syrian rangelands and H. schmittianum Pomel from southern Tunisia. To assess the vulnerability of these species to climate change we used ecological-based models. The data inputs were composed of the species occurrence data and the environmental data which included eight climatic layers, three soil property layers in addition to an altitude layer. Since environmental parameters only enable assessing the sensitivity of target species to climate change, a grazing pressure layer was used to assess the species vulnerability. Only climatic parameters were considered as changing across three periods; current situation, 2020 and 2050. The main results indicated that threatened range species, such as S. vermiculata which were subjected to continuous grazing pressure, showed high vulnerability to climate change as expressed by the predicted decrease in the areas of their distribution. However, species with low palatability and broad ecological niches (i.e. H. salicornicum and H. schmittianum) had an advantage due to the reduced competition for water and nutrients. An adaptation strategy to increase the resilience of the most vulnerable species should involve management of grazing pressure and the establishment of other mitigation measures.

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