We
describe the application of a validation and uncertainty quantification
methodology to multiphase computational fluid dynamics modeling, demonstrating
the methodology with simulations of a pilot-scale circulating fluidized
bed. The overall pressure drop is used as the quantity of interest
(QoI); the solids circulation rate and the superficial gas velocity
are chosen as the uncertain input quantities. The uncertainty in the
QoI, caused by uncertainties in input parameters, surrogate model,
spatial discretization, and time averaging, is calculated, and the
model form uncertainty is estimated by comparing simulation results
with experimental data. The spatial discretization error was determined
to be the most dominant source of uncertainty, but the applicability
of the method used to calculate that uncertainty needs to be further
investigated. The results of the analysis are expressed as a probability
box (p-box) plot. A p-box similarly constructed for predictive simulations
will give the design engineer information about the confidence in
the predicted values.
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