Four months into the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign, only 10.7% of the Lebanese population have received at least one dose, raising serious concerns over the speed of vaccine roll-out and its impact in the event of a future surge. Using mathematical modeling, we assessed the short-term impact of various vaccine roll-out scenarios on SARS-CoV-2 epidemic course in Lebanon. At current population immunity levels, estimated by the model at 40% on 15 April 2021, a large epidemic wave is predicted if all social distancing restrictions are gradually eased and variants of concern are introduced. Reaching 80% vaccine coverage by the end of 2021 will flatten the epidemic curve and will result in a 37% and 34% decrease in the peak daily numbers of severe/critical disease cases and deaths, respectively; while reaching intermediate coverage of 40% will result in only a 10–11% decrease in each. Reaching 80% vaccine coverage by August would prevent twice as many severe/critical disease cases and deaths than if it were reached by December. Easing restrictions over a longer duration resulted in more favorable vaccination impact. In conclusion, for vaccination to have impact in the short-term, scale-up has to be rapid and reach high coverage (at least 70%), while sustaining social distancing measures during roll-out. At current vaccination pace, this is unlikely to be achieved. Concerted efforts need to be made to overcome local challenges and substantially scale up vaccination to avoid a surge that the country, with its multiple crises and limited health-care capacity, is largely unprepared for.
Respiratory viral infections, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), are among the most common illnesses and a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Due to the severe effects on health, the need of new tools to study the pathogenesis of respiratory viruses as well as to test for new antiviral drugs and vaccines is urgent. In vitro culture model systems, such as three-dimensional (3D) cultures, are emerging as a desirable approach to understand the virus host interactions and to identify novel therapeutic agents. In the first part of the article, we address the various scaffold-free and scaffold-based 3D culture models such as hydrogels, bioreactors, spheroids and 3D bioprinting as well as present their properties and advantages over conventional 2D methods. Then, we review the 3D models that have been used to study the most common respiratory viruses including influenza, parainfluenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and coronaviruses. Herein, we also explain how 3D models have been applied to understand the novel SARS-CoV-2 infectivity and to develop potential therapies.
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Unintentional injuries constitute the leading causes of death and long-term disabilities among children aged 5 to 15 years. We aimed to systematically review published literature on interventions designed to prevent unintentional injuries among school-aged children. METHODS We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, CINAHL, and PsycINFO and screened the reference lists of included studies and relevant reviews. We included randomized controlled trials, controlled before-and-after studies, and interrupted time series studies. The focus of included studies was on primary prevention measures. Two reviewers collected data on type of study design, setting, population, intervention, types of injuries, outcomes assessed, and statistical results. RESULTS Of 30 179 identified studies, 117 were included in this review. Most of these studies were conducted in high-income countries and addressed traffic-related injuries. Evidence from included studies reveals that multicomponent educational interventions may be effective in improving safety knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors in school-aged children mainly when coupled with other approaches. Laws/legislation were shown to be effective in increasing cycle helmet use and reducing traffic-related injury rates. Findings reveal the relevance of infrastructure modification in reducing falls and improving pedestrian safety among children. CONCLUSIONS Additional studies are needed to evaluate the impact of unintentional injury prevention interventions on injury, hospitalizations, and mortality rates and the impact of laws and legislation and infrastructure modification on preventing unintentional injuries among school-aged children.
Background: Amidst a very difficult economic and political situation, and after a large first SARS-CoV-2 wave near the end of 2020, Lebanon launched its vaccination campaign on 14 February 2021. To date, only 6.7% of the population have received at least one dose of the vaccine, raising serious concerns over the speed of vaccine roll-out and its impact in the event of a future surge. Objective: Using mathematical modeling, we assessed the short-term impact (by end of 2021) of various vaccine roll-out scenarios on SARS-CoV-2 epidemic course in Lebanon. Results: At current immunity levels in the population, estimated by the model at 40% on 15 April 2021, a large epidemic wave is predicted if all social distancing restrictions are gradually eased and variants of concern are introduced. Reaching 80% vaccine coverage by end of 2021 will flatten the epidemic curve and will result in a 37% and 34% decrease in the peak daily numbers of severe/critical disease cases and deaths, respectively; while reaching intermediate coverage of 40% will result in only 10-11% decrease in each. Reaching 80% coverage by end of 2021 will avert 3 times more hospitalizations and deaths over the course of this year compared with 40% coverage. Impact of vaccination was substantially enhanced with rapid scale-up. Reaching 80% vaccine coverage by August would prevent twice as many severe/critical disease cases and deaths than if it were reached by December. Finally, a longer duration over which restrictions are eased resulted in a more favorable impact of vaccination. Conclusion: For vaccination to have an impact on the predicted epidemic course and associated disease burden in Lebanon, vaccination has to be rapid and reach high coverage (at least 70%), while sustaining social distancing measures during roll-out. At current vaccination pace, this is unlikely to be achieved. Concerted efforts need to be put to overcome local challenges and substantially scale up vaccination to avoid a surge that the country, with its multiple crises and limited health-care capacity, is largely unprepared for.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.