Climatic changes have a significant impact on many real life processes. Climacteric position of Albania makes precipitations and water inflows in HPP the main variables influencing the amount of electric energy produced in the country. Taking into account their volatility it has considerably increased the need of using hybrid models to improve the quality of predictions. After a detailed analysis of the time series components, we develop a group of hybrid models and propose modifications to increase the accuracy in prediction. Among the contributions of this work is the challenge to choose between hybrid models presented earlier in literature and the modified version according to the nature of data. The final decision on the most accurate model is made based on many goodness of fit test. This study suggest that an accurate selection of the forecasting techniques increases significantly the quality of forecast on precipitations and water inflow data.

This study is focused on energy production in Albania which involves different types of infrastructure at the various points of the energy production and distribution chain, as well as monitoring and early warning systems. At a time of rapid climate change, estimating the appropriate dimensions and design of such infrastructure and systems becomes crucial. The main objective is to analyze the seasonality pattern and main external climacteric factors, such as precipitation, average temperature, and water inflow. This work deals with the seasonality patterns of climacteric factors affecting energy production and considers different statistical learning methods for prediction.

In this work, the economic development and relation to social and demography indices in Albania were studied. Four time series (yearly data for the period 1995–2018) were considered: consumer price index (CPI), unemployment rate, inflation and life expectancy. In our approach, a first and fifth order multivariate Markov chain model was proposed to predict the economic situation in Albania in the proceedings years. Tests and accuracy analysis of the model were performed. The prediction probabilities fall in the interval of 0.47 to 0.52 and the accuracy of both models is 75%. Our approach is a short term probability forecast model that can be used by the policymakers to evaluate and undertake initiatives to improve the situation in the country.