To predict the public health impact on cervical disease by introducing human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in the United Kingdom, we developed a mathematical model that can be used to reflect the impact of vaccination in different countries with existing screening programmes. Its use is discussed in the context of the United Kingdom. The model was calibrated with published data. The impact of vaccination on cervical cancer and deaths, precancerous lesions and screening outcomes were estimated for a vaccinated cohort of 12-year-old girls, among which it is estimated that there would be a reduction of 66% in the prevalence of high-grade precancerous lesions and a 76% reduction in cervical cancer deaths. Estimates for various other measures of the population effects of vaccination are also presented. We concluded that it is feasible to forecast the potential effects of HPV vaccination in the context of an existing national screening programme. Results suggest a sizable reduction in the incidence of cervical cancer and related deaths. Areas for future research include investigation of the beneficial effects of HPV vaccination on infection transmission and epidemic dynamics, as well as HPV-related neoplasms in other sites.

BackgroundThere is currently conflicting evidence surrounding the effects of obesity on postoperative outcomes. Previous studies have found obesity to be associated with adverse events, but others have found no association. The aim of this study was to determine whether increasing body mass index (BMI) is an independent risk factor for development of major postoperative complications.MethodsThis was a multicentre prospective cohort study across the UK and Republic of Ireland. Consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal surgery over a 4‐month interval (October–December 2014) were eligible for inclusion. The primary outcome was the 30‐day major complication rate (Clavien–Dindo grade III–V). BMI was grouped according to the World Health Organization classification. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to adjust for patient, operative and hospital‐level effects, creating odds ratios (ORs) and 95 per cent confidence intervals (c.i.).ResultsOf 7965 patients, 2545 (32·0 per cent) were of normal weight, 2673 (33·6 per cent) were overweight and 2747 (34·5 per cent) were obese. Overall, 4925 (61·8 per cent) underwent elective and 3038 (38·1 per cent) emergency operations. The 30‐day major complication rate was 11·4 per cent (908 of 7965). In adjusted models, a significant interaction was found between BMI and diagnosis, with an association seen between BMI and major complications for patients with malignancy (overweight: OR 1·59, 95 per cent c.i. 1·12 to 2·29, P = 0·008; obese: OR 1·91, 1·31 to 2·83, P = 0·002; compared with normal weight) but not benign disease (overweight: OR 0·89, 0·71 to 1·12, P = 0·329; obese: OR 0·84, 0·66 to 1·06, P = 0·147).ConclusionOverweight and obese patients undergoing surgery for gastrointestinal malignancy are at increased risk of major postoperative complications compared with those of normal weight.

Background: CT-Scan is currently under assessment for the screening of asbestos-related diseases. However, to date no consensus exists as to how to select high-risk asbestos-exposed populations suitable for such screening programs. The objective of this study is to select the most relevant exposure variables for the prediction of pleural plaques and asbestosis in order to guide clinicians in their use of CT-Scan.

Objective To evaluate the time from abnormal Papanicolaou smear detected during routine screening to the initiation of investigation and treatment of subjects and to evaluate its related costs.Design Retrospective study of clinical records from women with abnormal cervical smears.Setting Six specialist gynaecology/colposcopy clinics in England and Wales.Sample Six hundred subsequent women (100 per clinic) with first abnormal cervical smear result at the specialist gynaecology/ colposcopy clinic.Methods Details of all clinic visits, tests and procedures during 24 months starting from the first abnormal cervical smear were collected from the year 2002.Main outcome measures Patterns of management after initial abnormal smear, time to start the investigation and/or treatment expressed in days/months and treatment costs by cytology and histology grades.Results Significant age differences were observed between women with early grades of precancer lesions (32 years) and cancer (49 years) (P < 0.05). Subgroup analysis of women younger than 26 years indicates a representation of this age group in all the histology grades including cancer. Median time to initiate the investigation and/or treatment was 50 days. In contrast, for 5% of women, delay in management lasted for >1 year. Colposcopy and repeated cervical smears were the most frequent systematic investigations performed, while the large loop excision of the transformation zone procedure was the principal therapeutic procedure. Analysis of average treatment costs by referral cytology showed small differences between the three grades of cytological diagnoses (mild dyskaryosis, £408.96; moderate dyskaryosis, £442.55 and severe dyskaryosis, £493.74). Analysis by histology grade showed that the cost for women with a negative result (£263.34) differed markedly from that for women with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) (CIN1, £419.39; CIN2, £572.29; and CIN3, £584.92).Conclusion Time to investigation could be improved for a subgroup of women. Costs associated with investigation and treatment of women with abnormal cervical smears differ significantly between analyses by cytology and histology grade. This needs to be borne in mind when designing cost-effectiveness studies of cervical screening.Keywords Cervix, colposcopy, costs, screening, treatment.Please cite this paper as: Martin-Hirsch P, Rash B, Martin A, Standaert B. Management of women with abnormal cervical cytology: treatment patterns and associated costs in England and Wales. BJOG 2007;114:408-415.

Background New diagnostic tools have been developed to improve the diagnosis of infectious encephalitis. Using a prospective cohort of encephalitis patients, our objective was to identify possible clusters of patients with similar patterns among encephalitis of unknown cause, and to describe to what extent the patient’s initial presentation may be predictive of encephalitis etiology, particularly Herpes simplex virus (HSV) and Varicella-zona virus (VZV). Methods The national cohort of infectious encephalitis in France (ENCEIF) is an ongoing prospective cohort study implemented in France in 2016. Patients presenting with a documented or suspected acute infectious encephalitis were included. Focusing on the variables describing the initial presentation, we performed a factor analysis of mixed data (FAMD) to investigate a pattern of association between the initial presentation of the patient and the etiologic pathogen. Results As of 1st August 2018, data from 349 patients were analysed. The most frequent pathogens were HSV (25%), VZV (11%), Tick-borne encephalitis virus (6%), Listeria (5%), Influenza virus (3%), and encephalitis of unknown cause (EUC) (34%). Using the FAMD, it was not possible to identify a specific pattern related to the group of EUC. Age, temporal or haemorrhagic lesions, and cerebral spinal fluid lymphocytosis were significantly associated with HSV/VZV encephalitis. Conclusion No initial clinical/imaging/biology pattern was identified at admission among EUC, despite the improvement of diagnostic tools. In this context, the recommendation for a universal, early probabilistic initial treatment against HSV and VZV is still relevant, regardless of the initial clinical presentation of the encephalitis.