All Together Now Environmental drivers, such as extreme weather events, impact population dynamics and can synchronize such dynamics across populations within a species. Given that many species depend on similar resources, such events might also be expected to synchronize dynamics across species, but the complexity of multispecies communities makes it difficult to reveal potential drivers in common. Hansen et al. (p. 313 ) took advantage of the simplicity of the year-round community on the high-arctic island of Spitsbergen to test for the presence of synchrony. Population fluctuations were synchronized across the three herbivore species (Svalbard reindeer, Svalbard rock ptarmigan, and sibling vole) and the single resident predator, the arctic fox, was in lagged synchrony. The driver of these fluctuations appears to be extreme winter rain-on-snow events that reduce the availability of winter forage due to ice cover.

Even though theoretical models show that parasites may regulate host population densities, few empirical studies have given support to this hypothesis. We present experimental and observational evidence for a host-parasite interaction where the parasite has sufficient impact on host population dynamics for regulation to occur. During a six year study of the Svalbard reindeer and its parasitic gastrointestinal nematode Ostertagia gruehneri we found that anthelminthic treatment in April-May increased the probability of a reindeer having a calf in the next year, compared with untreated controls. However, treatment did not influence the over-winter survival of the reindeer. The annual variation in the degree to which parasites depressed fecundity was positively related to the abundance of O. gruehneri infection the previous October, which in turn was related to host density two years earlier. In addition to the treatment effect, there was a strong negative effect of winter precipitation on the probability of female reindeer having a calf. A simple matrix model was parameterized using estimates from our experimental and observational data. This model shows that the parasite-mediated effect on fecundity was sufficient to regulate reindeer densities around observed host densities.

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The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain-on-snow) can cause 'icing', restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a 'barometer' of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between-year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long-term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to 'rain-on-snow' events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density-dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important 'missing' mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic.