This paper investigates the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption, and output growth among African OPEC countries (Libya, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon) using the panel autoregressive distributed lag model (PARDL) estimated by means of mean group (MG) and pooled mean group (PMG) for the period 1970-2016. The paper estimated three panel models comprising the components of greenhouse gasses which includes nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide (CO2), and methane and examined their relationship with economic growth and energy consumption. The findings of the study showed evidence of a positive impact of economic growth on both CO2 and methane emissions in the long run. Its impact on nitrous oxide emissions although positive was found to be statistically insignificant. Energy consumption was also found to produce an insignificant positive impact on CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions in the long run. In the short run, economic growth exerts a significant positive effect on methane emissions; however, its effect on CO2 and nitrous oxide emissions although positive was found to be statistically insignificant. Energy consumption produces an insignificant impact on all components of greenhouse gasses in the short run. In addition, our empirical results showed the presence of a non-linear relationship between methane emissions and economic growth, confirming the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) only in the case of methane emissions model.
This paper examines the dynamics in the relationship between oil price and exchange rate in Nigeria by utilizing monthly data spanning January 1986 to June 2018. It specifically determines asymmetries in the relationship between oil price and exchange rate and the effect of oil price shocks on exchange rate. Threshold Autoregressive (TAR), Momentum Threshold autoregressive (MTAR) and Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models were employed for the analysis. Findings of TAR and MTAR models confirm the absence of asymmetric cointegration, hence leading to the conclusion that in the case of Nigeria, there are no asymmetries in the relationship between oil price and exchange rate. Findings from the SVAR model show gradual appreciation (though with some time lag) of naira following positive shocks to oil price. The study recommends among others the need for diversification of foreign exchange earnings base of the economy, so as to minimise the effect of negative shocks to oil price.
This study examined the effect of human capital development on the economic growth of Nigeria. In achieving this, the human capital variables of education and health care were included in the study. The study employed the Autoregressuve and Distributive Lag (ARDL) model to annual series covering the period 1983 to 2018 for analysis. The findings of the study revealed the presence of a long-run association among the stuady variables. Further, it was discovered that in both the short and long run, both components of human capital development produce a positive effect on economic growth, although the effect of education appeared to be larger. The study emphasized the need for policymakers to enhance both access to and quality of health care and education with a view to stimulating the economic growth of Nigeria.
PurposeThis study examines the effect of public debt on the economic growth of OECD countries by disentangling the effect into permanent and transitory components. The study covers 37 OECD countries.Design/methodology/approachThe Mundlak decomposition was employed to decompose the effect of public debt into its transitory and permanent effect on economic growth. To account for potential endogeneity problem, the Hausman and Taylor estimator was employed to estimate the decomposed model. Further, the study disaggregated the OECD model into country group models for further analysis of the dynamics of the relationship between the variables.FindingsThe findings of the study reveal that in the full OECD model public debt exerts a significant negative permanent and positive transitory effect on economic growth. This was robust to alternative model specifications. The magnitude of the negative permanent effect of debt was found to be larger than the positive transitory effect. Further, the estimates of the disaggregated models reveal that though public debt has a negative permanent effect across all the country groups, it was not the case for the transitory effect of debt. Also, a net public debt model was estimated, and its effect on public debt was found to be largely insignificant, exhibiting a Ricardian-like behaviour.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, this is the first study, particularly in the OECD context that employed the Mundlak transformation to examine the permanent versus transitory effect of public debt on economic growth.
This study examined the effect of fiscal tightening and loosening on the public debt of sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries. To achieve this, the study employed a two‐step approach. In the first step, the effect of government primary balance on public debt was examined; while in the second step, the primary balance was disaggregated into its surplus and deficit components with the effect of each component on public debt examined. By utilising data covering a panel of 37 SSA countries for the period 2008 to 2017, the study employed the Panel System Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) model for analysis. Estimation results indicated that fiscal tightening (via government surpluses) produces a depressing effect on the stock of public debt while fiscal loosening increases the stock of public debt. Economic growth was also found to be effective in reducing public debt. The study cautions against protracted fiscal tightening due to its potential negative effect on economic growth and social welfare, thereby rendering it counterproductive.
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