Actions based on alerts produced in this study appeared to significantly reduce hospitalizations. This paves the way for further testing of the model.

ObjectivesFollowing appropriate validation, clinical prediction rules (CPRs) should undergo impact analysis to evaluate their effect on patient care. The aim of this systematic review is to narratively review and critically appraise CPR impact analysis studies relevant to primary care.SettingPrimary care.ParticipantsAdults and children.InterventionStudies that implemented the CPR compared to usual care were included.Study designRandomised controlled trial (RCT), controlled before–after, and interrupted time series.Primary outcomePhysician behaviour and/or patient outcomes.ResultsA total of 18 studies, incorporating 14 unique CPRs, were included. The main study design was RCT (n=13). Overall, 10 studies reported an improvement in primary outcome with CPR implementation. Of 6 musculoskeletal studies, 5 were effective in altering targeted physician behaviour in ordering imaging for patients presenting with ankle, knee and neck musculoskeletal injuries. Of 6 cardiovascular studies, 4 implemented cardiovascular risk scores, and 3 reported no impact on physician behaviour outcomes, such as prescribing and referral, or patient outcomes, such as reduction in serum lipid levels. 2 studies examined CPRs in decision-making for patients presenting with chest pain and reduced inappropriate admissions. Of 5 respiratory studies, 2 were effective in reducing antibiotic prescribing for sore throat following CPR implementation. Overall, study methodological quality was often unclear due to incomplete reporting.ConclusionsDespite increasing interest in developing and validating CPRs relevant to primary care, relatively few have gone through impact analysis. To date, research has focused on a small number of CPRs across few clinical domains only.

Longitudinal patient journeys encompass different phases with characteristic dynamics and are likely to require different interventions and strategies - thus being 'adaptive' to the changing complex dynamics of the patient's illness and care needs. CACC journey types provide a clinical tool for health professionals to focus time and care interventions in response to patterns of instability in multiple domains in chronic illness care.

BackgroundPoorly controlled type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) can be seen as failure to meet recommended targets for management of key risk factors including glycaemic control, blood pressure and lipids. Poor control of risk factors is associated with significant morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. Failure to intensify medications for patients with poor control of T2DM when indicated is called clinical inertia and is one contributory factor to poor control of T2DM. We aimed to develop a theory and evidence-based complex intervention to improve appropriate prescribing and medication intensification in poorly controlled T2DM in Irish general practice.MethodsThe first stage of the Medical Research Council Framework for developing and evaluating complex interventions was utilised. To identify current evidence, we performed a systematic review to examine the effectiveness of interventions targeting patients with poorly controlled T2DM in community settings. The Behaviour Change Wheel theoretical approach was used to identify suitable intervention functions. Workshops, simulation, collaborations with academic partners and observation of physicians were utilised to operationalise the intervention functions and design the elements of the complex intervention.ResultsOur systematic review highlighted that professional-based interventions, potentially through clinical decision support systems, could address poorly controlled T2DM. Appropriate intensification of anti-glycaemic and cardiovascular medications, by general practitioners (GPs), for adults with poorly controlled T2DM was identified as the key behaviour to address clinical inertia. Psychological capability was the key driver of the behaviour, which needed to change, suggesting five key intervention functions (education, training, enablement, environmental restructuring and incentivisation) and nine key behaviour change techniques, which were operationalised into a complex intervention. The intervention has three components: (a) a training program/academic detailing of target GPs, (b) a remote finder tool to help GPs identify patients with poor control of T2DM in their practice and (c) A web-based clinical decision support system.ConclusionsThis paper describes a multifaceted process including an exploration of current evidence and a thorough theoretical understanding of the predictors of the behaviour resulting in the design of a complex intervention to promote the implementation of evidence-based guidelines, through appropriate prescribing and medication intensification in poorly controlled T2DM.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s13012-017-0647-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Introduction:The use of Clinical Prediction Rules (CPRs) has been advocated as one way of implementing actionable evidence-based rules in clinical practice. The current highly manual nature of deriving CPRs makes them difficult to use and maintain. Addressing the known limitations of CPRs requires implementing more flexible and dynamic models of CPR development. We describe the application of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to provide a platform for the derivation and dissemination of CPRs derived through analysis and continual learning from electronic patient data.Model Components:We propose a multistep maturity model for constructing electronic and computable CPRs (eCPRs). The model has six levels – from the lowest level of CPR maturity (literaturebased CPRs) to a fully electronic and computable service-oriented model of CPRs that are sensitive to specific demographic patient populations. We describe examples of implementations of the core model components – focusing on CPR representation, interoperability, electronic dissemination, CPR learning, and user interface requirements.Conclusion:The traditional focus on derivation and narrow validation of CPRs has severely limited their wider acceptance. The evolution and maturity model described here outlines a progression toward eCPRs consistent with the vision of a learning health system (LHS) – using central repositories of CPR knowledge, accessible open standards, and generalizable models to avoid repetition of previous work. This is useful for developing more ambitious strategies to address limitations of the traditional CPR development life cycle. The model described here is a starting point for promoting discussion about what a more dynamic CPR development process should look like.