Results from 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam during two dengue epidemics reveal that human population densities typical of villages are most prone to dengue outbreaks; rural areas may contribute as much to dissemination of dengue fever as do cities.

Recent research has indicated that the malaria burden in Asia may have been vastly underestimated. We conducted a prospective community-based study in an impoverished urban site in Kolkata, India, to estimate the burden of malaria and typhoid fever and to identify risk factors for these diseases. In a population of 60452 people, 3605 fever episodes were detected over a 12-month period. The blood films of 93 febrile patients contained Plasmodium (90 P. vivax, 2 P. falciparum and 1 P. malariae). Blood cultures from 95 patients grew Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi. Malaria patients were found to be significantly older (mean age 29 years) compared with patients with typhoid fever (15 years; P<0.001) but had similar clinical features on presentation. Having a household member with malaria, illiteracy, low household income and living in a structure not built of bricks were associated with an increased risk for malaria. Having a household member with typhoid fever and poor hygiene were associated with typhoid fever. A geographic analysis of the spatial distribution of malaria and typhoid fever cases detected high-risk neighbourhoods for each disease. Focal interventions to minimise human-vector contact and improved personal hygiene and targeted vaccination campaigns could help to prevent malaria and typhoid fever in this site.

Globally, malaria cases have drastically dropped in recent years. However, a high incidence of malaria remains in some sub-Saharan African countries. South Africa is mostly malaria-free, but northeastern provinces continue to experience seasonal outbreaks. Here we investigate the association between malaria incidence and spatio-temporal climate variations in Limpopo. First, dominant spatial patterns in malaria incidence anomalies were identified using self-organizing maps. Composite analysis found significant associations among incidence anomalies and climate patterns. A high incidence of malaria during the pre-peak season (Sep-Nov) was associated with the climate phenomenon La Niña and cool air temperatures over southern Africa. There was also high precipitation over neighbouring countries two to six months prior to malaria incidence. During the peak season (Dec-Feb), high incidence was associated with positive phase of Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole. Warm temperatures and high precipitation in neighbouring countries were also observed two months prior to increased malaria incidence. This lagged association between regional climate and malaria incidence suggests that in areas at high risk for malaria, such as Limpopo, management plans should consider not only local climate patterns but those of neighbouring countries as well. These findings highlight the need to strengthen cross-border control of malaria to minimize its spread.

BackgroundJars, tanks, and drums provide favorable rearing/breeding sites for Aedes aegypti in Vietnam. However, the use of insecticides to control mosquitoes at such breeding sites has not been approved in Vietnam since they are also often sources of drinking water, making larval vector control difficult. Mosquito nets pre-treated with long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLITNs) form an effective measure for malaria control. We examined changes in the abundance of immature Aedes aegypti to evaluate the efficacy of covering ceramic jars with lids comprising one type of LLITN, Olyset® Net, in inhibiting oviposition by adult females, and to evaluate the effect of treating other breeding containers, such as flower vases, inside and around the outside of houses with a slow-release pyriproxyfen formulation to kill pupae.MethodsWe selected 313 households for the trial and 363 households for the control in Tan Chanh, Long An province, Vietnam. In the trial area, Olyset® Net lids were used to cover five major types of water container (ceramic jars, cylindrical concrete tanks, other concrete tanks, plastic drums, and plastic buckets), while pyriproxyfen was used to treat flower vases and ant traps. We also monitored dengue virus transmission by measuring anti-dengue IgM and IgG levels in healthy residents in both control and trial areas to estimate the effectiveness of Olyset® Net at controlling the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti.ResultsThe container-index and house-index for immature Ae. aegypti fell steeply one month after treatment in the trial area. Lids with Olyset® Net that fit container openings clearly seemed to reduce the presence of immature Ae. aegypti as the density of pupae decreased 1 month after treatment in the trial area. Pyriproxyfen was also effective at killing pupae in the water containers in the trial area. Although the dengue seroconversion rate was not influenced by Olyset® Net, it was lower in two-five year old children when compared to older children and adults in both control and trial areas.ConclusionsOur study showed that the treatment by Olyset® Net and pyriproxyfen had a strong negative effect on the prevalence of immature Ae. aegypti, which persisted for at least 5 months after treatment.

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We visited houses and inspected water-holding containers to determine the potential risks of dengue transmission during different seasons. This survey was conducted in 2 neighbourhoods of Nha Trang City in July and December 2006, which correspond to the middle of the hot-dry season and the beginning of the cool-wet season, respectively. We inspected a total of 1,438 wet containers in 196 premises during both survey periods; 20% of the containers were positive for Aedes aegypti larvae and 8% for Ae. aegypti pupae. Indoor water-holding containers, which were sparsely distributed, exhibited high pupal productivity and efficiency (pupal productivity of a type of container/prevalence of that type of container) in either the first survey conducted in July, or the second, conducted in December. Although rainfall may not influence the number and distribution of water-holding containers in the city, the high average temperature in the first survey period resulted in a higher potential risk of dengue transmission.Our analysis suggests that if intensive source reduction is conducted in summer and containers with high pupal productivity and efficiency are targeted, the risk of dengue transmission in the city could be effectively reduced.

Although there have been enormous demands and efforts to develop an early warning system for malaria, no sustainable system has remained. Well-organized malaria surveillance and high-quality climate forecasts are required to sustain a malaria early warning system in conjunction with an effective malaria prediction model. We aimed to develop a weather-based malaria prediction model using a weekly time-series data including temperature, precipitation, and malaria cases from 1998 to 2015 in Vhembe, Limpopo, South Africa and apply it to seasonal climate forecasts. The malaria prediction model performed well for short-term predictions (correlation coefficient, r > 0.8 for 1- and 2-week ahead forecasts). The prediction accuracy decreased as the lead time increased but retained fairly good performance (r > 0.7) up to the 16-week ahead prediction. The demonstration of the malaria prediction process based on the seasonal climate forecasts showed the short-term predictions coincided closely with the observed malaria cases. The weather-based malaria prediction model we developed could be applicable in practice together with skillful seasonal climate forecasts and existing malaria surveillance data. Establishing an automated operating system based on real-time data inputs will be beneficial for the malaria early warning system, and can be an instructive example for other malaria-endemic areas.

Abstract. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of existing practices of residents in reducing pre-adult Aedes aegypti (L.) infestation and to assess the effect of dengue-related knowledge on the practices. A house-to-house survey was conducted in two areas with different socioeconomic status in Ho Chi Minh City between October and November 2007. Some residents in both the areas used covers on the productive containers such as the jars and plastic buckets (i.e., 58% and 81% in the two study areas), and it was effective in reducing Ae. aegypti infestation: odds ratio (OR) of 4.0 and 4.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.49-10.76 and 1.2-19.57, respectively) for the containers with inappropriate covers compared with those with appropriate covers in the two areas, respectively. Appropriate cover use was an effective practice; however, no beneficial role of the knowledge related to dengue in promoting the practice was identified.