Summary Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people...

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017 Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low-and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations. Gains in child survival have long served as an important proxy measure for improvements in overall population health and development 1,2. Global progress in reducing child deaths has been heralded as one of the greatest success stories of global health 3. The annual global number of deaths of children under 5 years of age (under 5) 4 has declined from 19.6 million in 1950 to 5.4 million in 2017. Nevertheless, these advances in child survival have been far from universally achieved, particularly in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) 4. Previous subnational child mortality assessments at the first (that is, states or provinces) or second (that is, districts or counties) administrative level indicate that extensive geographical inequalities persist 5-7. Progress in child survival also diverges across age groups 4. Global reductions in mortality rates of children under 5-that is, the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR)-among post-neonatal age groups are greater than those for mortality of neonates (0-28 days) 4,8. It is relatively unclear how these age patterns are shifting at a more local scale, posing challenges to ensuring child survival. To pursue the ambitious Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of the United Nations 9 to "end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5" by 2030, it is vital for decision-makers at all levels to better understand where, and at what ages, child survival remains most tenuous.

BackgroundPast research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.MethodsWe reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).FindingsIn 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).InterpretationInjuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Background Considering its pandemicity and absence of effective treatment, authorities across the globe have designed various mitigation strategies to combat the spread of COVID-19. Although adherence towards preventive measures is the only means to tackle the virus, reluctance to do so has been reported to be a major problem everywhere. Thus, this study aimed to assess the community’s adherence towards COVID-19 mitigation strategies and its associated factors among Gondar City residents, Northwest Ethiopia. Methods A community-based cross-sectional study was employed among 635 respondents from April 20–27, 2020. Cluster sampling technique was used to select the study participants. Data were collected using an interviewer-administered structured questionnaire. Epi-Data version 4.6 and STATA version 14 were used for data entry and analysis, respectively. Binary logistic regressions (Bivariable and multivariable) were performed to identify statistically significant variables. Adjusted odds ratio with 95% CI was used to declare statistically significant variables on the basis of p < 0.05 in the multivariable logistic regression model. Results The overall prevalence of good adherence towards COVID-19 mitigation measures was 51.04% (95%CI: 47.11, 54.96). Female respondents [AOR: 2.39; 95%CI (1.66, 3.45)], receiving adequate information about COVID-19 [AOR: 1.58; 95%CI (1.03, 2.43)], and favorable attitude towards COVID-19 preventive measures were significantly associated with good adherence towards COVID-19 mitigation measures. Whereas, those respondents who had high risk perception of COVID-19 were less likely to adhere towards COVID-19 mitigation measures [AOR: 0.61; 95% CI (0.41, 0.92)]. Conclusions The findings have indicated that nearly half of the study participants had poor adherence towards COVID-19 mitigation measures. Sex, level of information exposure, attitude towards COVID-19 preventive measures, and risk perception of COVID-19 were factors which significantly influenced the adherence of the community towards COVID-19 mitigation measures. Therefore, it is crucial to track adherence responses towards the COVID-19 preventive measures, scale up the community’s awareness of COVID-19 prevention and mitigation strategies through appropriate information outlets, mainstream media, and rely on updating information from TV, radio, and health care workers about COVID-19.

BackgroundWhile there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.MethodsIn this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.ResultsGBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.ConclusionsGBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Background Maternal continuums of care were vital to reducing maternal and neonatal mortalities. While the dropout rate remains high and limited studies were found on risk factors associated with a high dropout rate of the maternal continuum of care. Objective This study aimed to assess the magnitude of dropout rate and its associated factors of maternity continuum of care in Ethiopia, 2016 Methods An in-depth secondary data analysis was conducted from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2016 data. A total of 4,693 women who were booked for antenatal care visit were included to the final analysis. A community-based cross-sectional study design and a pre-tested and standardized questionnaire were used to collect the survey data. Data were weighted using women data weighting variables. Chi-square and multicollinearity assumptions were checked for independent variables. Bi-variable and multivariable logistics regression used to identify associated factors with a cut of the p-value of 0.2 and 0.05 respectively.

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54•0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38•1-65•8), 17•4% (7•7-28•4), and 59•5% (34•2-86•9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess households access to improved drinking water sources and sanitation facilities and their associated factors in Ethiopia.DesignCross-sectional study.SettingEthiopia.ParticipantsHousehold heads.Primary outcomesAccess to improved drinking water sources and toilet facilities.MethodsWe conducted an in-depth secondary data analysis of 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. Data from a total of 16 650 households and 645 clusters were included in the analysis. The households were selected using a stratified two-stage cluster sampling technique. Multilevel binary logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with access to an improved drinking water source and toilet facilities. Adjusted OR with a 95% CI was reported with p value <0.05 was used to declare a significant association between the covariates and the outcome variables.ResultsThe proportions of households’ access to improved sources of drinking water and toilet facilities were 69.94% (95% CI: 69.23% to 70.63%) and 25.36% (95% CI: 24.69% to 26.03%), respectively. Households headed by women and households with a better wealth index were positively associated with access to improved drinking water sources. Whereas rural households, ≥30 min round trip to obtain drinking water and region were factors negatively associated with households access to improved drinking water sources. A higher probability of having access to improved toilet facilities: households with heads who had attained higher education, households having better access to improved sources of drinking water and households with better wealth index. While the following households were less likely to have access to improved toilet facilities: households with heads were widowed, households with four to six members, rural households and region.ConclusionThe study found that the proportions of households’ access to improved drinking water sources and toilet facilities in Ethiopia were relatively low, which demands the need to tailor strategies to increase the coverage of access to improved drinking water sources and toilet facilities.