BackgroundLack of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence data in (Norwegian) high-risk groups impedes the ability to make informed decisions on prevention measures. Thus we rely on modelling to estimate the incidence and burden of HCV infections.MethodsWe constructed a compartmental model for HCV infections in Norway among active and former people who inject drugs (PWIDs). We based yearly transition rates on literature. The model was fitted to absolute numbers of hepatitis C associated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death from national data sources (2000–2013). We estimated the number (95%CI) of HCV infections, cirrhosis, HCC and death and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) due to HCV infections in Norway, 1973–2030. We assumed treatment rates in the projected period were similar to those in 2013.ResultsThe estimated proportion of chronic HCV (including those with cirrhosis and HCC) among PWIDs was stable from 2000 (49%; 4441/9108) to 2013 (43%; 3667/8587). We estimated that the incidence of HCV among PWIDs was 381 new infections in 2015. The estimated number of people with cirrhosis, HCC, and liver transplant was predicted to increase until 2022 (1537 people). DALYs among active PWIDs estimated to peak in 2006 (3480 DALYs) and decrease to 1870 DALYs in 2030. Chronic HCV infection contributes most to the total burden of HCV infection, and peaks at 1917 DALYs (52%) in 2007. The burden of HCV related to PWID increased until 2006 with 81/100,000 DALYs inhabitants and decreased to 68/100,000 DALYs in 2015.ConclusionThe burden of HCV associated with injecting drug use is considerable, with chronic HCV infection contributing most to the total burden. This model can be used to estimate the impact of different interventions on the HCV burden in Norway and to perform cost-benefit analyses of various public health measures.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-017-2631-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background: Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage is often asymptomatic but can cause invasive pneumococcal disease. Pneumococcal carriage is a prerequisite for disease, with children as main reservoir and transmitters. Childhood carriage can therefore be used to determine which serotypes circulate in the population and which may cause disease in the nonvaccinated population. In 2006, a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) was introduced into the Norwegian Childhood Immunisation Programme, which was replaced by the more valent PCV13 in 2011. We investigated changes in pneumococcal carriage prevalence 4 years after switching to PCV13 compared to three previous surveys, and analysed factors associated with carriage in children. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study in Norway, autumn 2015, among children attending day-care centres. We collected questionnaire data and nasopharyngeal swabs to identify pneumococcal serotypes. We compared the carriage prevalence in 2015 with surveys conducted in the same setting performed before widespread vaccination (2006; n = 610), 2 years after PCV7 introduction (2008; n = 600), and 2 years after switching to PCV13 (2013; n = 874). Using multilevel logistic regression we determined the association between pneumococcal carriage and previously associated factors. Results: In 2015, 896 children participated, with age ranging from 8 to 80 months. The overall carriage prevalence was 48/100 children [95%CI 44-53] in 2015, 38% [29-46] lower than in 2006 pre-PCV7, and 23% [12-32] lower than in 2013, 2 years after switching to PCV13. The PCV13 carriage prevalence was 2.8/100 children [1.9-4.2] in 2015. Increasing age (p < 0.001), recent antimicrobial use (odds ratio = 0.42 [0.21-0.57]) and being vaccinated (odds ratio = 0.37 [0.29-0.47]) were negatively associated with carriage. Conclusions: Our study showed a continued decrease in overall pneumococcal carriage, mainly fuelled by the decline in vaccine serotypes after vaccine introduction. Childhood vaccination with PCV13 should be continued to keep low PCV13 carriage, transmission and disease. Furthermore, the low prevalence of PCV13-type carriage in children endorse the choice of not recommending PCV13 in addition to the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine to most medical risk groups in Norway, as little disease caused by these serotypes can be expected.

PurposeNew direct-acting antiviral (DAA) drugs have revolutionized the treatment of hepatitis C in recent years.ObjectiveOur objective was to analyse the cost effectiveness of combinations of different DAAs compared with ribavirin and peginterferon-α-2a, taking into account rebates from tender negotiations.MethodsWe used a compartmental model specifically developed for Norway to simulate hepatitis C and complications with and without different DAAs. All costs were based on Norwegian fees and estimates, estimating healthcare sector costs for the year 2016. We performed Monte Carlo simulations on uncertain input parameters to facilitate probabilistic sensitivity analyses.ResultsFor patients diagnosed with genotype 1, the combination of paritaprevir, ritonavir, ombitasvir and dasabuvir was cost effective compared with eight other available alternatives, given a cost-effectiveness threshold of €70,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. For genotype 2, the combination of sofosbuvir and ribavirin was the most effective and cost-effective alternative for all patients. Among available alternatives for patients with genotype 3, sofosbuvir in combination with peginterferon and ribavirin was the most cost-effective alternative, although the combination of daclatasvir and sofosbuvir was somewhat more effective.ConclusionsFor each of the hepatitis C genotypes 1, 2 and 3, there were combinations of DAAs that were cost effective in a Norwegian setting. As a result of recent tender negotiations in Norway, treating all diagnosed patients with hepatitis C with the most cost-effective DAAs will result in lower total expenditure on these medications compared with 2015.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s40273-017-0604-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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