a b s t r a c tThis study examines the generalized Fisher hypothesis as applied to common stocks by using the recently proposed second generation panel cointegration tests. Unlike their predecessors, these new tests assume the existence of cross-section dependence in the data. For the sample analyzed, we report that these new tests, but not their predecessors, provide strong support for the existence of cointegration between stock and goods prices. Moreover, further analysis cannot reject the hypothesis that the cointegration relation is linear. Finally, our Fisher coefficient estimates are in the range between 0.68 and 1.27 and give support to the generalized Fisher hypothesis.
This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of alternative models for the one-day ahead forecasts of BIST-30 index (Istanbul Stock Exchange-Borsa Istanbul major index that contains 30 blue-chip stocks) volatility. Realized volatility is used as the relevant benchmark for the evaluation of forecasts. We document evidence, which shows that realized volatility is a less noisy estimator than the daily square benchmark explaining more of the variation in the volatility. In addition; the benefit of using extreme value estimators as volatility proxies are discussed. It is empirically demonstrated that the extreme value estimators are 5 to 8 times more efficient than historical volatility measures. The use of extreme value estimators with simple forecasting models provide better short-term forecasts than the GARCH based volatility forecasts due to higher efficiency of extreme value estimators.
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