Significance This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

No abstract

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multi-model ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of different research groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-week horizon 3-5 times larger than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks. Significance Statement This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the US. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models, and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public health action.

Although social anxiety and depression are common, they are often underdiagnosed and undertreated, in part due to difficulties identifying and accessing individuals in need of services. Current assessments rely on client self-report and clinician judgment, which are vulnerable to social desirability and other subjective biases. Identifying objective, nonburdensome markers of these mental health problems, such as features of speech, could help advance assessment, prevention, and treatment approaches. Prior research examining speech detection methods has focused on fully supervised learning approaches employing strongly labeled data. However, strong labeling of individuals high in symptoms or state affect in speech audio data is impractical, in part because it is not possible to identify with high confidence which regions of a long speech indicate the person’s symptoms or affective state. We propose a weakly supervised learning framework for detecting social anxiety and depression from long audio clips. Specifically, we present a novel feature modeling technique named NN2Vec that identifies and exploits the inherent relationship between speakers’ vocal states and symptoms/affective states. Detecting speakers high in social anxiety or depression symptoms using NN2Vec features achieves F-1 scores 17% and 13% higher than those of the best available baselines. In addition, we present a new multiple instance learning adaptation of a BLSTM classifier, named BLSTM-MIL. Our novel framework of using NN2Vec features with the BLSTM-MIL classifier achieves F-1 scores of 90.1% and 85.44% in detecting speakers high in social anxiety and depression symptoms.

No abstract