This paper discusses the problem of risk estimate and choice of the rational variants in the transportation using expert information systems. The pairwise comparison method (Saaty's method) is used to determine the weights of chosen criteria. An example is given that compares logistic risks in shipping, railway and aviation transport. The input data are taken in the example are formal and can be chosen for the concrete problems. This example is solved by both non-fuzzy and fuzzy approach. It is shown that with the set of data in the railway transport is the optimal option. The results demonstrate the effi ciency of the proposed method. Sažetak U radu se analizira problem procjene rizika i odabira racionalnih opcija u prijevozu uporabom ekspertnih informacijskih sustava. Metoda usporedbe po parovima (Saaty metoda) upotrijebljena je kako bi se utvrdilo značenje odabranih kriterija. Donosi se primjer u kojemu se uspoređuju logistički rizici u pomorskom, željezničkom i zračnom prijevozu. Uneseni podaci koji se koriste u primjeru općeniti su i mogu se odabrati za konkretne primjere. Odabrani primjer riješen je s pomoću dviju logika: jasne i nejasne. Pokazalo se da su podaci u željezničkom prijevozu optimalno rješenje. Rezultati pokazuju učinkovitost predložene metode. KEY WORDS decision-making expert system transportation problem fuzzy approach multi-criteria optimization Saaty's method KLJUČNE RIJEČI ekspertni sustavi odlučivanja problem prijevoza nejasna logika multikriterijska optimizacija Saaty metoda
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