The geology at Kottamiya, Rehab City and Zahraa-Madinat-Nasr to the East of Cairo (Egypt) is composed of low-velocity sediments on top of a rigid rock basement. Such sediments include the loose sands of the Gebel Ahmar formation, marl and shales of Maadi formation, in addition to sparse quaternary soil covers. Due to the contrast of the seismic impedance with the underlying bedrock, these soft sediments have the potential of considerably amplifying the ground motion during an earthquake. For the evaluation of site-specific seismic hazard, we computed the seismic site response in these areas by developing 1-D velocity models and derived average seismic velocities, including Vs 30 . To do that, we applied different active and passive source techniques, including the horizontal to vertical Fourier spectral ratio of ambient vibration recordings and multichannel analysis of artificially generated surface waves. A set of models representing the velocity structure of the site is then obtained by combined inversion of Rayleigh wave dispersion curves and ellipticity functions. While dispersion curves are used to constrain the uppermost low-velocity part of the soil profile, ellipticity helps in resolving the structure at the depth of the sediment-bedrock interface. From the retrieved velocity models, numerical ground-motion amplification is finally derived using 1-D SH-wave transfer function. We account for uncertainty in amplification by using a statistical model that accounts for the misfit of all the inverted velocity profiles. The study reveals that the different sites experience an important frequency-dependent amplification, with largest amplification occurring at the resonance frequencies of the sites. Amplification up to a factor of 5 is found, with some variability depending on the soil type (Vs 30 ranges between 340 and 415 m s −2 ). Moreover, amplification is expected in the frequency range that is important for buildings (0.8-10 Hz), which is additional confirmation for the need of microzonation analysis of the area. The obtained results will be used for the development of a new seismic hazard model.
A new seismic hazard model for Cairo, the capital city of Egypt is developed herein based on comprehensive consideration of uncertainties in various components of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The proposed seismic hazard model is developed from an updated catalogue of historical and instrumental seismicity, geodetic strain rates derived from GPSbased velocity-field of the crust, and the geologic slip rates of active faults. The seismic source model consists of area sources and active faults characterised to forecast the seismic productivity in the region. Ground motion prediction models are selected to describe the expected ground motion at the sites of interest. The model accounts for inherent epistemic uncertainties of statistical earthquake recurrence; maximum magnitude; ground motion prediction models, and their propagation toward the obtained results. The proposed model is applied to a site-specific hazard analysis for Kottamiya, Rehab City and Zahraa-Madinat-Nasr (hereinafter referred to as Zahraa) to the East of Cairo (Egypt). The site-specific analysis accounts for the site response, through the parameterization of the sites in terms of average 30-m shear-wave velocity (Vs30). The present seismic hazard model can be considered as a reference model for earthquake risk mitigation and proper resilience planning.
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