Purpose Investment in non-listed real estate funds (NREFs) in an emerging economy like India has its own challenges that entail a detailed understanding of the risks. The purpose of this paper is to identify the key risk factors across the life cycle of a NREF, based on a considered feedback of various real estate fund management stakeholders. It is important for the investors and fund managers to appreciate these risk factors to make informed investment decisions. Design/methodology/approach The present study based on the literature survey and discussion with experts identifies 39 risk attributes, which were further summarized using factor analysis into a smaller set of factors impacting NREF returns (risk). The relative importance of each risk attribute was examined and ranked using the relative importance index (RII). Further, cluster analysis using Euclidian distance was used to partition these risk attributes in various segments depending on their importance. Findings The risk attributes are summarized as five risk factors, i.e. regulatory RISK, foreign direct investment risk, entry risk, business risk and project risk. Whereas the top five perceived risk attributes are investee/partner risk, project entitlement risk, title risk, legislative and regulatory risk and project execution risk. Practical implications This study has significance to the industry practitioners and the academic community in developing an understanding of the dynamic nature of risks across the life cycle of the NREFs in India and classifying them at the macro-meso-micro levels. Originality/value This paper is one of the first attempts to understand the risks impacting NREFs in India. It will help investors develop a better strategic understanding of the risks across the life cycle of an investment.

Purpose – There is significant research related to risk and uncertainty in valuation. Risk, in valuation, is mostly communicated to investors in qualitative terms. There has been some research in developed markets to communicate risk quantitatively to clients through property risk scores. However there is paucity of research on communicating risk in emerging markets where the valuation profession is still evolving. Indian property markets have emerged as one the fastest growing markets in the last five years. With the growth in Indian economy and the emergence of indirect property investment market, it is likely that domestic and international passive investors would play an important role in property investment in India. Valuation of assets in portfolio and communication of risk in appropriate way would gain utmost importance. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses analytical hierarchical process method to quantitatively assess risk to value for office properties in India. This study focuses on identifying principal elements of risk as perceived by key market players in an emerging economy like India. It identifies fundamentals of market, property and lease to determine valuation risk. It may be highlighted here that the risk that this paper is analysing is not the risk that is associated with the valuation for valuer who is conducting valuation but systematic and non-systematic risk associated with property. A two round of survey has been conducted to find various principal elements of valuation risk and sub criteria’s through an online survey conducted through survey monkey. Findings – The study found that in an emerging market like India there are limited exit option for developers and investors due to absence of exit vehicle like REITs for office property. Principal element of risk considered is the resale of property, i.e. exit from an investment, followed by tenant and lease specific elements to be other principal elements of risk in the order tenant risk, lock-in duration, functional obsolescence and lease duration. Other market risks like yield movement, rental movement, occupier demand were not considered principal elements of risk. Research limitations/implications – The study could be expanded further by increasing the sample size and as this study demonstrates present market sentiments. Study needs to be updated periodically to retain its practical importance and relevance to the industry. Practical implications – Findings of this study could be used by valuers and investors investing in office properties in India. Originality/value – This is the first paper on risk scoring for commercial properties in the Indian market. It has high importance as Indian market for office space will grow significantly with introduction of REITs.

PurposeThis study provides an extensive risk assessment framework for nonlisted real estate funds' (NREFs) portfolio management in India across their life cycle; that is, the investment stage, the monitoring stage and the exit stage in an emerging market context. The study of risk across these three stages is a new addition to the literature and assumes importance in the context of real estate portfolio management for NREFs in the emerging markets (e.g. India), which are predominantly an opportunistic investment play.Design/methodology/approachThe risk assessment framework is built on the multiactor/multicriteria risk priorities, using analytical hierarchy process (AHP), obtained from 35 experts in four real estate fund management professional groups; namely, investors/fund managers, valuers, consultants and international developers.FindingsThe results demonstrate that the real estate portfolio management risk priorities change across the three life cycle stages of the fund. At the investment stage, specific risks are most critical; at the monitoring stage, it is important to concentrate on all three risks – specific, systematic and management risks; and at the exit stage, systematic risk plays a crucial role. Real estate portfolio management risk evaluation at the subfactor level shows that investee/partner and location selection needs to be critically evaluated at the time of the investment; project execution and quality of development must be monitored during the construction/monitoring period; and repatriation of the funds, currency volatility and exit risk (resale) are critical at the exit stage of the fund.Practical implicationsThe understanding of the real estate portfolio management risk transformation across the life cycle stages is crucial for NREF managers for risk minimization, transfer and mitigation strategy formulation in their real estate portfolios. Unlike previous research that evaluates investment risk, this study breaks the NREF's risks into the investment, monitoring and exit stages. The key risk factors for each stage depend on the NREF's real estate activities for that stage. These activities, in turn, give rise to a typical risk profile for that stage. The findings are crucial for the various stakeholders of real estate fund management and policymakers in an emerging market context; particularly India, one of the fastest growing major economies in the world.Originality/valueThis risk assessment framework for simultaneously assessing risk across the three life cycle stages of NREFs is a new addition to the literature.

PurposeReal estate forms an important part of any economy and the investment in real estate, in turn, is impacted by the macroeconomic environment of that country. The purpose of the present research is to examine macroeconomic determinants of foreign and domestic non-listed real estate fund (NREF) flows and to examine whether they are similar or different for an emerging economy like India.Design/methodology/approachThe long and short-run cointegration between the time-series variables is estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test and error correction model (ECM) using quarterly data across the 2005–2017 period. ARDL is a suitable method for short time-series data.FindingsThe empirical results indicate that domestic NREF flows are positively and significantly impacted by real GDP and performance of listed real estate stocks (i.e. BSE realty index). Whereas, foreign NREF flows are positively and significantly impacted by the exchange rate, performance of listed real estate stocks and domestic NREF flows.Practical implicationsThe empirical results have significant implications for academicians, policy makers and real estate market practitioners. In the context of these results, some interesting insights are gained that would help in the implementation of the policies aimed toward increasing the fund flows in the real estate sector, which in turn would have a significant trickle-down effect on the Indian economy.Originality/valueThe existing literature looks at macroeconomic and other drivers of foreign investment in international real estate investments. However, there are very few studies on the determinants of domestic real estate investment flows and on determinants of NREFs' investment flows; particularly in emerging markets. The present study, in contrast, evaluates simultaneously the macroeconomic determinants of the domestic and foreign NREFs' investment flows in India. The ARDL and ECM method used has been applied for the first time to the study of NREFs.

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