In this study we have examined the spatial and temporal variability of the annual precipitation observations over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) for 47 years and 51 stations. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were obtained in order to characterise the variability. Four regional precipitation regimes have been identified and the corresponding principal components (PCs) were subjected to spectral analysis in order to obtain the structure of the temporal variations. The relationship between the precipitation and circulation patterns is also investigated. The four leading PCs of annual precipitation are associated with the following patterns: East Atlantic (EA); North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); Southern Oscillation Index (SOI); Scandinavia (SCAND). The spectra of the precipitation PCs show statistically significant oscillations coherent with those found in the time series of the teleconnection indices. A reconstruction of the time series as a function of the PCs is provided in order to obtain a characterisation of precipitation climatology over the IP. © 1998 Royal Meteorological Society

Winter precipitation variability over the Iberian peninsula was investigated by obtaining the spatial and temporal patterns. Empirical Orthogonal Functions were used to describe the variance distribution and to compress the precipitation data into a few modes. The corresponding spatial patterns divide the peninsula into climatic regions according to precipitation variations. The associated time series were related to large scale circulation indices and tropical sea surface temperature anomalies by using lag cross-correlation and cross-spectrum. The major findings are: the most influential indices for winter precipitation were the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern; coherent oscillations were detected at about eight years between precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation and some dynamic consequences of the circulation on precipitation over the Iberian peninsula were examined during drought and wet spells. In the end statistical methods have been proposed to downscale seasonal precipitation prediction.

The aims of this study are to identify the trend of warm days and cold nights over the Iberian Peninsula and to connect the variations with large-scale variables. The reasons for performing this analysis are the effects that extremes events have on different ecosystems. Here, we present the results on spatial and temporal variability of warm days (TX90), or those exceeding the 90th percentile of maximum temperature, and cold nights (TN10), or those falling below the 10th percentile of minimum temperature. The extreme indices were derived from daily observations at stations and gridded data over land area for the period 1950 to 2006. Significant trends of more warm days and fewer cold nights were found. The trend to fewer cold nights is within the interval of global results given by the IPCC AR4 report; however, the trend to warm days is greater than the corresponding global trend. The influence of large-scale variables on these extreme indices was examined by means of the Empirical Orthogonal Function, correlation, composite maps and multiple regression analyses. Changes in TX90 are connected with the Scandinavian teleconnection index and a preferred mode of geopotential height at 500 hPa over the North Atlantic. Changes in TN10 are connected with the East Atlantic teleconnection index and the leading mode of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic area. Based on the links between the extreme indices and the large-scale variables we derived statistical models to describe the response of TX90 and TN10 to atmospheric circulation and SST variations. The 668 Climatic Change (2010) 100:667-684 models characterized the observed variations of TX90 and TN10 reasonably well. The results of this study encourage us to analyze, in further work, how temperature extremes might change over the Iberian Peninsula under warmer climate conditions.

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