In this paper, we propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure for noncausal autoregressive (AR) models. Specifically, we derive the joint posterior density of the past and future errors and the parameters, which gives posterior predictive densities as a byproduct. We show that the posterior model probability provides a convenient model selection criterion and yields information on the probabilities of the alternative causal and noncausal specifications. This is particularly useful in assessing economic theories that imply either causal or purely noncausal dynamics. As an empirical application, we consider U.S. inflation dynamics. A purely noncausal AR model gets the strongest support, but there is also substantial evidence in favor of other noncausal AR models allowing for dependence on past inflation. Thus, although U.S. inflation dynamics seem to be dominated by expectations, the backward-looking component is not completely missing. Finally, the noncausal specifications seem to yield inflation forecasts which are superior to those from alternative models especially at longer forecast horizons.JEL Classification: C11, C32, C52, E31

This paper provides a simple epidemiology model where households, when forming their inflation expectations, rationally adopt the past release of inflation with certain probability rather than the forward-looking newspaper forecast as suggested in Carroll [2003, Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 269-298]. The posterior model probabilities based on the Michigan survey data strongly support the proposed model. We also extend the agentbased epidemiology model by deriving for it a simple adaptation, which is suitable for estimation. Our results show that this model is able to capture the heterogeneity in households' expectations very well.JEL Classification: C11, C53, C82, D84, E31.

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure for noncausal autoregressive (AR) models. Specifically, we derive the joint posterior density of the past and future errors and the parameters, which gives posterior predictive densities as a byproduct. We show that the posterior model probability provides a convenient model selection criterion and yields information on the probabilities of the alternative causal and noncausal specifications. This is particularly useful in assessing economic theories that imply either causal or purely noncausal dynamics. As an empirical application, we consider U.S. inflation dynamics. A purely noncausal AR model gets the strongest support, but there is also substantial evidence in favor of other noncausal AR models allowing for dependence on past inflation. Thus, although U.S. inflation dynamics seem to be dominated by expectations, the backward-looking component is not completely missing. Finally, the noncausal specifications seem to yield inflation forecasts which are superior to those from alternative models especially at longer forecast horizons.JEL Classification: C11, C32, C52, E31

It is studied by eye-tracking how searchers explore metadata in book pages when selecting novels of varying interest levels. 30 participants searched interesting novels for four search tasks in two public library catalogs. The results showed that the associations of dwell time in book pages and in many metadata types, and novels' interest grading were non-linear. Most time was used for assessing a somewhat interesting novel compared to a non-interesting or very interesting one. Therefore, the binary classification of interest grading hides and over-emphasizes the contribution of "somewhat interesting" category in modeling interest by dwell time in book pages or metadata. Non-linear regression models showed that the explanatory power was greater in a three-level classification of interest grading compared to a binary classification.

Reduced use of eye contact is a prominent feature in individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). It has been proposed that direct gaze does not capture the attention of individuals with ASD. Experimental evidence is, however, mainly restricted to relatively high-functioning school-aged children or adults with ASD. This study investigated whether 2-5-year-old low-functioning children with severe ASD differ from control children in orienting to gaze stimuli, as measured with the heart rate deceleration response. Responses were measured to computerized presentations of dynamic shifts of gaze direction either toward (direct) or away (averted) from the observing child. The results showed a significant group by gaze direction interaction effect on heart rate responses (permuted P = .004), reflecting a stronger orienting response to direct versus averted gaze in typically developing (N = 17) and developmentally delayed (N = 16) children but not in children with ASD (N = 12). The lack of enhanced orienting response to direct gaze in the ASD group was not caused by a lack of looking at the eye region, as confirmed by eye tracking. The results suggest that direct gaze is not a socially salient, attention-grabbing signal for low-functioning children with ASD. Autism Res 2017, 10: 810-820. © 2017 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.