SUMMARY. The disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is expected to increase as the infected population ages. A modelling approach was used to estimate the total number of viremic infections, diagnosed, treated and new infections in 2013. In addition, the model was used to estimate the change in the total number of HCV infections, the disease progression and mortality in 2013-2030. Finally, expert panel consensus was used to capture current treatment practices in each country. Using today's treatment paradigm, the total number of HCV infections is projected to decline or remain flat in all countries studied. However, in the same time period, the number of individuals with late-stage liver disease is projected to increase. This study concluded that the current treatment rate and efficacy are not sufficient to manage the disease burden of HCV. Thus, alternative strategies are required to keep the number of HCV individuals with advanced liver disease and liver-related deaths from increasing.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis) infections cause 9.0 million new tuberculosis (TB) cases and 1.5 million deaths annually1. To search for sequence variants that confer risk of TB we tested 28.3 million variants identified through whole-genome sequencing of 2,636 Icelanders for association with TB (8,162 cases and 277,643 controls), pulmonary TB (PTB), and M. tuberculosis infection. We found association of three sequence variants in the HLA class II region: rs557011[T] (MAF=40.2%) with M. tuberculosis infection (OR =1.14, P=3.1×10-13) and PTB (OR=1.25, P=5.8×10-12) and rs9271378[G] (MAF=32.5%) with PTB (OR=0.78, P=2.5×10-12), both located between HLA-DQA1 and HLA-DRB1. Finally, a missense variant p.Ala210Thr in HLA-DQA1, (MAF=19.1%, rs9272785) shows association with M. tuberculosis infection (P=9.3×10-9, OR=1.14). The association of these variants with PTB was replicated in large samples of European ancestry from Russia and Croatia (P< 5.9×10-4). These findings demonstrate that the HLA class II region contributes to the complex genetic risk of tuberculosis, possibly through reduced presentation of protective M. tuberculosis antigens to T cells.

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BACKGROUNDLimited data exist on how SARS-CoV-2 enters and spreads in the general population. METHODSWe used two strategies for SARS-CoV-2 testing: targeted testing of high-risk individuals (n=4,551) and a population screening (n=5,502). We sequenced SARS-CoV-2 from 340 individuals. RESULTSOn March 22 2020, 528 had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the targeted testing (11.6%) and 50 in the population screening (0.9%); approximately 0.2% of the Icelandic population. Large fractions of positives had travelled outside Iceland (38.4% and 34.0%). Fewer under 10 years old were positive than those older: 2.8% vs. 12.3% for targeted testing (P=1.6e-9) and 0.0% vs. 1.0% for population screening (P=0.031).Fewer females were positive in the targeted testing than males (9.5% vs. 14.6%, P=6.8e-9). SARS-CoV-2 came from eight clades, seven A clades and one B clade. The clade composition differed between the testing groups and changed with time. In the early targeted testing, 65.0% of clades were A2a1 and A2a2 derived from Italian and Austrian skiing areas, but in the later targeted testing went down to 30.6% and were overtaken by A1a and A2a, the most common clades in the population screening. CONCLUSIONSARS-CoV-2 has spread widely in Iceland outside of the high-risk groups. Several strains cause these infections and their relative contribution changed rapidly. . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a perpetuity.is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in (which was not certified by peer review) preprint

(2007) Nordic biological specimen banks as basis for studies of cancer causes and control -more than 2 million sample donors, 25 million person years and 100 000 prospective cancers, Acta Oncologica, 46:3,

BackgroundThe microbial etiology of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is often unclear in clinical practice, and previous studies have produced variable results. Population-based studies examining etiology and incidence are lacking. This study examined the incidence and etiology of CAP requiring hospitalization in a population-based cohort as well as risk factors and outcomes for specific etiologies.MethodsConsecutive admissions due to CAP in Reykjavik, Iceland were studied. Etiologic testing was performed with cultures, urine-antigen detection, and polymerase chain reaction analysis of airway samples. Outcomes were length of stay, intensive care unit admission, assisted ventilation, and mortality.ResultsThe inclusion rate was 95%. The incidence of CAP requiring hospitalization was 20.6 cases per 10000 adults/year. A potential pathogen was detected in 52% (164 of 310) of admissions and in 74% (43 of 58) with complete sample sets. Streptococcuspneumoniae was the most common pathogen (61 of 310, 20%; incidence: 4.1/10000). Viruses were identified in 15% (47 of 310; incidence: 3.1/10000), Mycoplasmapneumoniae were identified in 12% (36 of 310; incidence: 2.4/10000), and multiple pathogens were identified in 10% (30 of 310; incidence: 2.0/10000). Recent antimicrobial therapy was associated with increased detection of M pneumoniae (P < .001), whereas a lack of recent antimicrobial therapy was associated with increased detection of S pneumoniae (P = .02). Symptoms and outcomes were similar irrespective of microbial etiology.ConclusionsPneumococci, M pneumoniae, and viruses are the most common pathogens associated with CAP requiring hospital admission, and they all have a similar incidence that increases with age. Symptoms do not correlate with specific agents, and outcomes are similar irrespective of pathogens identified.

SUMMARY. Detailed, country-specific epidemiological data are needed to characterize the burden of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection around the world. With new treatment options available, policy makers and public health officials must reconsider national strategies for infection control. In this study of 15 countries, published and unpublished data on HCV prevalence, viraemia, genotype, age and gender distribution, liver transplants and diagnosis and treatment rates were gathered from the literature and validated by expert consensus in each country. Viraemic prevalence in this study ranged from 0.2% in Iran and Lebanon to 4.2% in Pakistan. The largest viraemic populations were in Pakistan (7 001 000 cases) and Indonesia (3 187 000 cases). Injection drug use (IDU) and a historically unsafe blood supply were major risk factors in most countries. Diagnosis, treatment and liver transplant rates varied widely between countries. However, comparison across countries was difficult as the number of cases changes over time. Access to reliable data on measures such as these is critical for the development of future strategies to manage the disease burden.

Abstract. Olafsson S, Tyrfingsson