Where there are a limited number of patients, such as in a rare disease, clinical trials in these small populations present several challenges, including statistical issues. This led to an EU FP7 call for proposals in 2013. One of the three projects funded was the Innovative Methodology for Small Populations Research (InSPiRe) project. This paper summarizes the main results of the project, which was completed in 2017.The InSPiRe project has led to development of novel statistical methodology for clinical trials in small populations in four areas. We have explored new decision-making methods for small population clinical trials using a Bayesian decision-theoretic framework to compare costs with potential benefits, developed approaches for targeted treatment trials, enabling simultaneous identification of subgroups and confirmation of treatment effect for these patients, worked on early phase clinical trial design and on extrapolation from adult to pediatric studies, developing methods to enable use of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics data, and also developed improved robust meta-analysis methods for a small number of trials to support the planning, analysis and interpretation of a trial as well as enabling extrapolation between patient groups. In addition to scientific publications, we have contributed to regulatory guidance and produced free software in order to facilitate implementation of the novel methods.

for the PREMILOC Trial Study Group* Objective To define nomograms of serum cortisol values before 24 hours of postnatal life for extremely preterm infants and determine whether baseline cortisol values affect the benefit/risk ratio of prophylactic hydrocortisone to improve survival without bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). Study designWe performed a predefined secondary analysis of the multicenter randomized controlled PREMI-LOC trial that included inborn infants delivered before 28 weeks of gestation. Nomograms of baseline serum cortisol values measured in 325 enrolled patients were determined for male and female neonates and correlated to perinatal events. BPD-free survival and severe adverse events were analyzed in placebo and hydrocortisone groups according to the cortisol z score in multivariate logistic regression models.Results Increased cortisol levels measured before 24 hours following birth were associated with a significantly higher chance of BPD-free survival only in placebo-treated infants (aOR [95% CI] 1.57 [1.08-2.27], P = .02) based on sex-specific nomograms for baseline cortisol levels. The cortisol z score for infants treated with prophylactic hydrocortisone predicted a risk of high-grade intraventricular hemorrhage (aOR [95% CI] 1.82 [1.06-3.15], P = .03) and spontaneous intestinal perforation (aOR [95% CI] 4.81 [1.34-17.22], P = .02). ConclusionsWe found no predictive value of baseline cortisol levels for BPD-free survival in infants born extremely preterm treated with hydrocortisone. However, high cortisol levels early after birth were associated with a greater risk of severe intraventricular hemorrhage and spontaneous intestinal perforation in infants treated with hydrocortisone and, therefore, a lower benefit/risk ratio for the treatment.

ObjectiveTo determine whether early low-dose hydrocortisone treatment in extremely preterm infants is associated with brain damage assessed by MRI at term equivalent of age (TEA).Patients and outcomesThis is a predefined secondary analysis of brain abnormalities, observed by MRI at TEA, of patients randomly assigned to receive either placebo or hydrocortisone in the PREMILOC trial. Outcomes were based on brain abnormalities graded according to Kidokoro scores.ResultsAmong 412 survivors at TEA, 300 MRIs were performed and 295 were suitable for analysis. Kidokoro scoring was completed for 119/148 and 110/147 MRIs in the hydrocortisone and placebo groups, respectively. The distribution of the Kidokoro white matter (WM) subscore and other subscores was not significantly different between the two groups. There was, however, a significant association between a higher overall Kidokoro score and hydrocortisone treatment (5.84 (SD 3.51) for hydrocortisone and 4.98 (SD 2.52) for placebo; mean difference, 0.86; 95% CI 0.06 to 1.66; p=0.04). However, hydrocortisone was not statistically associated with moderate-to-severe brain lesions (Kidokoro overall score ≥6) in a multivariate logistic regression model accounting for potential confounding variables (adjusted OR (95% CI) 1.27 (0.75 to 2.14), p=0.38). Bronchopulmonary dysplasia at 36 weeks postmenstrual age significantly predicted both WM damage (adjusted OR (95% CI) 2.70 (1.03 to 7.14), p=0.04) and global brain damage (adjusted OR (95% CI) 2.18 (1.19 to 3.99), p=0.01).ConclusionsEarly hydrocortisone exposure in extremely preterm infants is not statistically associated with either WM brain damage or overall moderate-to-severe brain lesions when adjusted for other neonatal variables.Trial registration numberEudraCT number 2007-002041-20, NCT00623740