Cognitive performance is defined as the ability to utilize knowledge, attention, memory, and working memory. In this study, we briefly discuss various markers that have been proposed to predict cognitive performance. Next, we develop a novel approach to characterize cognitive performance by analyzing eye-blink rate variability dynamics. Our findings are based on a sample of 24 subjects. The subjects were given a 5-min resting period prior to a 10-min IQ test. During both stages, eye blinks were recorded from Fp1 and Fp2 electrodes. We found that scale exponents estimated for blink rate variability during rest were correlated with subjects' performance on the subsequent IQ test. This surprising phenomenon could be explained by the person to person variation in concentrations of dopamine in PFC and accumulation of GABA in the visual cortex, as both neurotransmitters play a key role in cognitive processes and affect blinking. This study demonstrates the possibility that blink rate variability dynamics at rest carry information about cognitive performance and can be employed in the assessment of cognitive abilities without taking a test.
Abstract-It has been shown that blinks occur not only to moisturize eyes and as a defensive response to the environment, but are also caused by mental processes. In this paper, we investigate statistical characteristics of blinks and blink rate variability of 11 subjects. The subjects are presented with a reading/memorization session preceded and followed by a resting session. EEG signals were recorded during these sessions. The signals from the two front electrodes were then analyzed, and times of the blinks were detected. We discovered that compared to the resting sessions, reading session is characterized by a lower number of blinks. However, there was no significant difference in standard deviation in the blink rate variability. We also noticed that in terms of complexity measures, the blink rate variability is located somewhere in between white and pink noises, being closer to the white noise during reading. We also found that the average of inter-blink intervals increases during reading/memorization, thus longer inter-blink intervals could be associated with a mental workload.
Volatility forecasting is an important aspect of finance as it dictates many decisions of market players. A snapshot of state-of-the-art neural network–based financial volatility forecasting was generated by examining 35 studies, published after 2015. Several issues were identified, such as the inability for easy and meaningful comparisons, and the large gap between modern machine learning models and those applied to volatility forecasting. A shared task was proposed to evaluate state-of-the-art models, and several promising ways to bridge the gap were suggested. Finally, adequate background was provided to serve as an introduction to the field of neural network volatility forecasting.
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