Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship modeling is one of the major computational tools employed in medicinal chemistry. However, throughout its entire history it has drawn both praise and criticism concerning its reliability, limitations, successes, and failures. In this paper, we discuss: (i) the development and evolution of QSAR; (ii) the current trends, unsolved problems, and pressing challenges; and (iii) several novel and emerging applications of QSAR modeling. Throughout this discussion, we provide guidelines for QSAR development, validation, and application, which are summarized in best practices for building rigorously validated and externally predictive QSAR models. We hope that this Perspective will help communications between computational and experimental chemists towards collaborative development and use of QSAR models. We also believe that the guidelines presented here will help journal editors and reviewers apply more stringent scientific standards to manuscripts reporting new QSAR studies, as well as encourage the use of high quality, validated QSARs for regulatory decision making.

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Word cloud summary of diverse topics associated with QSAR modeling that are discussed in this review.

Computational prediction of the interaction between drugs and targets is a standing challenge in the field of drug discovery. A number of rather accurate predictions were reported for various binary drug–target benchmark datasets. However, a notable drawback of a binary representation of interaction data is that missing endpoints for non-interacting drug–target pairs are not differentiated from inactive cases, and that predicted levels of activity depend on pre-defined binarization thresholds. In this paper, we present a method called SimBoost that predicts continuous (non-binary) values of binding affinities of compounds and proteins and thus incorporates the whole interaction spectrum from true negative to true positive interactions. Additionally, we propose a version of the method called SimBoostQuant which computes a prediction interval in order to assess the confidence of the predicted affinity, thus defining the Applicability Domain metrics explicitly. We evaluate SimBoost and SimBoostQuant on two established drug–target interaction benchmark datasets and one new dataset that we propose to use as a benchmark for read-across cheminformatics applications. We demonstrate that our methods outperform the previously reported models across the studied datasets.

Increased multiple antibiotic resistance in the face of declining antibiotic discovery is one of society's most pressing health issues. Antimicrobial peptides represent a promising new class of antibiotics. Here we ask whether it is possible to make small broad spectrum peptides employing minimal assumptions, by capitalizing on accumulating chemical biology information. Using peptide array technology, two large random 9-amino-acid peptide libraries were iteratively created using the amino acid composition of the most active peptides. The resultant data was used together with Artificial Neural Networks, a powerful machine learning technique, to create quantitative in silico models of antibiotic activity. On the basis of random testing, these models proved remarkably effective in predicting the activity of 100,000 virtual peptides. The best peptides, representing the top quartile of predicted activities, were effective against a broad array of multidrug-resistant "Superbugs" with activities that were equal to or better than four highly used conventional antibiotics, more effective than the most advanced clinical candidate antimicrobial peptide, and protective against Staphylococcus aureus infections in animal models.

The recently emerged 2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and associated COVID-19 disease cause serious or even fatal respiratory tract infection and yet no approved therapeutics or effective treatment is currently available to effectively combat the outbreak. This urgent situation is pressing the world to respond with the development of novel vaccine or a small molecule therapeutics for SARS-CoV-2. Along these efforts, the structure of SARS-CoV-2 main protease (Mpro) has been rapidly resolved and made publicly available to facilitate global efforts to develop novel drug candidates. Recently, our group has developed a novel deep learning platform -Deep Docking (DD) which provides fast prediction of docking scores of Glide (or any other docking program) and, hence, enables structure-based virtual screening of billions of purchasable molecules in a short time. In the current study we applied DD to all 1.3 billion compounds from ZINC15 library to identify top 1,000 potential ligands for SARS-CoV-2 Mpro protein. The compounds are made publicly available for further characterization and development by scientific community.

The Online Chemical Modeling Environment is a web-based platform that aims to automate and simplify the typical steps required for QSAR modeling. The platform consists of two major subsystems: the database of experimental measurements and the modeling framework. A user-contributed database contains a set of tools for easy input, search and modification of thousands of records. The OCHEM database is based on the wiki principle and focuses primarily on the quality and verifiability of the data. The database is tightly integrated with the modeling framework, which supports all the steps required to create a predictive model: data search, calculation and selection of a vast variety of molecular descriptors, application of machine learning methods, validation, analysis of the model and assessment of the applicability domain. As compared to other similar systems, OCHEM is not intended to re-implement the existing tools or models but rather to invite the original authors to contribute their results, make them publicly available, share them with other users and to become members of the growing research community. Our intention is to make OCHEM a widely used platform to perform the QSPR/QSAR studies online and share it with other users on the Web. The ultimate goal of OCHEM is collecting all possible chemoinformatics tools within one simple, reliable and user-friendly resource. The OCHEM is free for web users and it is available online at http://www.ochem.eu.

Selecting most rigorous quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) approaches is of great importance in the development of robust and predictive models of chemical toxicity. To address this issue in a systematic way, we have formed an international virtual collaboratory consisting of six independent groups with shared interests in computational chemical toxicology. We have compiled an aqueous toxicity data set containing 983 unique compounds tested in the same laboratory over a decade against Tetrahymena pyriformis. A modeling set including 644 compounds was selected randomly from the original set and distributed to all groups that used their own QSAR tools for model development. The remaining 339 compounds in the original set (external set I) as well as 110 additional compounds (external set II) published recently by the same laboratory (after this computational study was already in progress) were used as two independent validation sets to assess the external predictive power of individual models. In total, our virtual collaboratory has developed 15 different types of QSAR models of aquatic toxicity for the training set. The internal prediction accuracy for the modeling set ranged from 0.76 to 0.93 as measured by the leave-one-out cross-validation correlation coefficient ( Q abs2). The prediction accuracy for the external validation sets I and II ranged from 0.71 to 0.85 (linear regression coefficient R absI2) and from 0.38 to 0.83 (linear regression coefficient R absII2), respectively. The use of an applicability domain threshold implemented in most models generally improved the external prediction accuracy but at the same time led to a decrease in chemical space coverage. Finally, several consensus models were developed by averaging the predicted aquatic toxicity for every compound using all 15 models, with or without taking into account their respective applicability domains. We find that consensus models afford higher prediction accuracy for the external validation data sets with the highest space coverage as compared to individual constituent models. Our studies prove the power of a collaborative and consensual approach to QSAR model development. The best validated models of aquatic toxicity developed by our collaboratory (both individual and consensus) can be used as reliable computational predictors of aquatic toxicity and are available from any of the participating laboratories.