No abstract

Symptoms of forest decline, apparently due to climate change, have become evident in the last 10 years on the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt and northwestern temperate forest of Mexico, particularly at the xeric (low elevational) limit of several forest tree species. We review and provide recent evidence of massive infestation of timberline Pinus hartwegii Lindl. by the mistletoes Arceuthobium globosum Hawksw. & Wiens and Arceuthobium vaginatum (Humb. & Bonpl. ex Willd.) J.Presl; insufficient Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. & Cham. seedling recruitment at the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve; indications of inbreeding and defoliation in endangered Picea chihuahuana Martínez, Picea martinezii T.F. Patt., Picea mexicana Martínez, and extreme southern populations of Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco; and the incidence of unusual pest and disease outbreaks (e.g., Dendroctonus Erichson, 1836 spp., Neodiprion autumnalis Smith, and Phytophthora cinnamomi Rands) in several conifer and oak species. We also discuss a difficult question: Is natural genetic variation sufficient to provide populations with the adaptive variation necessary to survive the natural selection imposed by projected climate change scenarios, or will phenotypic plasticity be exhausted and populations decline? Controversial ex situ conservation within natural protected areas, assisted migration, and translocation of species ensembles are discussed as options by which to accommodate projected climatic change impacts on the management and conservation practices of the megadiverse Mexican temperate forest.

Native plant establishment is limited by harsh environmental conditions in areas affected by tephra deposition following volcanic eruptions. Late-successional species might be lacking even decades after the disturbance. We assessed the effectiveness of pine-bark mulch, a by-product of sustainable timber production in the study area, in promoting the establishment and survival of a late-successional species (Pinus pseudostrobus) and a nitrogen-fixing legume (Lupinus elegans). We established a factorial experiment in areas covered with tephra during the eruption of the Paricutín volcano in the state of Michoacán, Mexico. After 1 year, P. pseudostrobus survival was significantly higher (p < 0.001) in plots with pine-bark mulching (46.5%) than in plots without mulching (21.8%). After 2 years, surviving pines with mulching were significantly taller (p ¼ 0.03) than pines without mulching (45.3 ± 3.8 cm and 31.2 ± 3.7 cm, respectively). Lupinus elegans plants survived longer when grown in plots with pine-bark mulching than without mulching. Mulching reduced tephra temperatures during the dry season (when temperatures can reach up to 58°C 4 cm below the surface of bare tephra). Lupinus elegans plants were affected by herbivory by small rodents, run-off, and frost at the end of the growing season. Our results suggest that mulching can ameliorate harsh environmental conditions on sites covered with tephra while incorporating a byproduct of sustainable forestry into restoration practice.

Conservation of Abies religiosa (sacred fir) within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR) in Mexico requires adaptive management to cope with expected climatic change, in order to have healthy trees for Danaus plexippus overwintering sites in the future. Open pollinated seeds from fifteen A. religiosa populations were collected along an elevational gradient (2850-3550 masl; one sampled population every 50 m of elevational difference). Seedlings were evaluated in a common garden test over a period of 30 months. We found significant differences (P < 0.03) among populations in total elongation, final height, date of growth cessation, foliage, stem and total dry weight, as well as frost damage. These differences were strongly associated with the Mean Temperature of the Coldest Month (MTCM; r2= 0.6222, P = 0.0005). Seedlings originating from lower elevation populations grew more but suffered more frost damage than those from higher elevations. Populations differentiate genetically when they are separated by 364 m in elevation. Such differentiation was used to delineate three elevational/climatic zones for seed collection, with limits defined at: 2650 masl or 9.7 °C of MTCM; 3000 masl or 8.5 °C; 3350 masl or 7.3 °C; and 3700 masl or 6.1 °C. Zonification for seedling deployment aiming to match a suitable climate in year 2030 (after projections using an ensemble of 18 General Circulation Models and a Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 watts/ m2), would have the same MTCM zone limits, but shifted 350 m upwards in elevation. This shift would exceed the highest elevations within the MBBR, necessitating the establishment of A. religiosa stands outside the MBBR, to serve as potential future overwintering sites.

The high biodiversity of the Mexican montane forests is concentrated on the Trans‐Mexican Volcanic Belt, where several Protected Natural Areas exist. Our study examines the projected changes in suitable climatic habitat for five conifer species that dominate these forests. The species are distributed sequentially in overlapping altitudinal bands: Pinus hartwegii at the upper timberline, followed by Abies religiosa, the overwintering host of the Monarch butterfly at the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve, P. pseudostrobus, the most important in economic terms, and P. devoniana and P. oocarpa, which are important for resin production and occupy low altitudes where montane conifers merge with tropical dry forests. We fit a bioclimatic model to presence–absence observations for each species using the Random Forests classification tree with ground plot data. The models are driven by normal climatic variables from 1961 to 1990, which represents the reference period for climate‐induced vegetation changes. Climate data from an ensemble of 17 general circulation models were run through the classification tree to project current distributions under climates described by the RCP 6.0 watts/m2 scenario for the decades centered on years 2030, 2060 and 2090. The results suggest that, by 2060, the climate niche of each species will occur at elevations that are between 300 to 500 m higher than at present. By 2060, habitat loss could amount to 46–77%, mostly affecting the lower limits of distribution. The two species at the highest elevation, P. hartwegii and A. religiosa, would suffer the greatest losses while, at the lower elevations, P. oocarpa would gain the most niche space. Our results suggest that conifers will require human assistance to migrate altitudinally upward in order to recouple populations with the climates to which they are adapted. Traditional in situ conservation measures are likely to be equivalent to inaction and will therefore be incapable of maintaining current forest compositions.