We draw a multimessenger picture of J1048+7143, a flat-spectrum radio quasar known to show quasiperiodic oscillations in the γ-ray regime. We generate the adaptively binned Fermi Large Area Telescope light curve of this source above 168 MeV to find three major γ-ray flares of the source, such that each of the three flares consists of two sharp subflares. Based on radio interferometric imaging data taken with the Very Large Array, we find that the kiloparsec-scale jet is directed west, while our analysis of 8.6 GHz very long baseline interferometry data, mostly taken with the Very Long Baseline Array, revealed signatures of two parsec-scale jets, one pointing east, one pointing south. We suggest that the misalignment of the kiloparsec- and parsec-scale jets is a revealing signature of jet precession. We also analyze the 5 GHz total flux density curve of J1048+7143 taken with the Nanshan (Ur) and RATAN-600 single-dish radio telescopes and find two complete radio flares, lagging slightly behind the γ-ray flares. We model the timing of γ-ray flares as a signature of the spin–orbit precession in a supermassive black hole binary, and find that the binary could merge in the next ∼60–80 yr. We show that both pulsar timing arrays and the planned Laser Interferometer Space Antenna lack sensitivity and frequency coverage to detect the hypothetical supermassive black hole binary in J1048+7143. We argue that the identification of sources similar to J1048+7143 plays a key role in revealing periodic high-energy sources in the distant universe.
In this paper we present the multimessenger picture of the flat-spectrum radio quasar (FSRQ) J1048+7143, a blazar showing gamma-ray quasi-periodic oscillations. We generate the adaptively binned Fermi-LAT light curve of this source above 168 MeV and find three major 𝛾-ray flares, such that each of the flares resolves into two subflares. By analyzing arcsec-scale and milliarcsecscale radio interferometric observations, we find signatures of the precession of a spine-sheath structured jet. We analyze the 5 GHz total flux density curve of J1048+7143 taken with single-dish radio telescopes, and find three complete radio flares that are also suggestive of jet precession. We model the timing of gamma-ray flares as a signature of the spin-orbit precession in a supermassive black hole binary and find that the binary could merge in the next 60-80 yrs.
On 2022 September 18, an alert by the IceCube Collaboration indicated that a ∼170 TeV neutrino arrived in directional coincidence with the blazar TXS 0506+056. This event adds to two previous pieces of evidence that TXS 0506+056 is a neutrino emitter, i.e., a neutrino alert from its direction on 2017 September 22, and a 3σ signature of a dozen neutrinos in 2014/2015. De Bruijn el al. showed that two previous neutrino emission episodes from this blazar could be due to a supermassive binary black hole (SMBBH) central engine where jet precession close to the final coalescence of the binary results in periodic emission. This model predicted a new emission episode consistent with the 2022 September 18 neutrino observation by IceCube. Here, we show that the neutrino cadence of TXS 0506+056 is consistent with an SMBBH origin. We find that the emission episodes are consistent with an SMBBH with mass ratios q ≲ 0.3 for a total black hole mass of M tot ≳ 3 · 108 M ⊙. For the first time, we calculate the characteristic strain of the gravitational wave emission of the binary, and show that the merger could be detectable by LISA for black hole masses <5 · 108 M ⊙ if the mass ratios are in the range 0.1 ≲ q ≲ 0.3. We predict that there can be a neutrino flare existing in the still-to-be-analyzed IceCube data peaking some time between 2019 August and 2021 January if a precessing jet is responsible for all three detected emission episodes. The next flare is expected to peak in the period 2023 January to 2026 August. Further observation will make it possible to constrain the mass ratio as a function of the total mass of the black hole more precisely and would open the window toward the preparation of the detection of SMBBH mergers.
The IceCube neutrino observatory detected two distinct flares of high-energy neutrinos from the direction of the blazar TXS 0506+056: a ∼ 300 TeV single neutrino on September 22, 2017 and a 3.5𝜎 signature of a dozen TeV neutrinos in 2014/2015. In a previous work, it was shown that these two episodes of neutrino emission could be due to an inspiral of a supermassive binary black hole (SMBBH) close to its merger at the core of TXS 0506+056. Such an inspiral can lead to quasi-periodic particle emission due to jet precession close to the final coalescence. This model made predictions on when the next neutrino emission episode must occur. On September 18, 2022, IceCube detected an additional, ∼ 170 TeV neutrino in directional coincidence with the blazar TXS 0506+056, being consistent with the model prediction. Additionally, in April 2021, the Baikal Collaboration reported the detection of a 224 ± 75 TeV neutrino, with TXS 0506+056 being in the uncertainty range of the event direction. We show that these four distinct flares of neutrino emission from TXS 0506+056 are consistent with a precessing jet scenario, driven by an inspiraling SMBBH. Using improved modeling, we are now able to constrain the total mass together with the mass ratio for the binary. We predict when the next neutrino flares from TXS 0506+056 should be happening. Finally, we estimate the detection potential of the Laser-interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) for the merger in the future.
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