Over many decades our understanding of the impacts of intermittent drought in water-limited environments like the West African Sahel has been influenced by a narrative of overgrazing and human-induced desertification. The desertification narrative has persisted in both scientific and popular conception, such that recent regional-scale recovery ("regreening") and local success stories (community-led conservation efforts) in the Sahel, following the severe droughts of the 1970s-1980s, are sometimes ignored. Here we report a study of watershed-scale vegetation dynamics in 260 watersheds, sampled in four regions of Senegal, Mali, and Niger from 1983-2012, using satellite-derived vegetation indices as a proxy for net primary production. In response to earlier controversy, we first examine the shape of the rainfall-net primary production relationship and how it impacts conclusions regarding greening or degradation. We conclude that the choice of functional relationship has little quantitative impact on our ability to infer greening or degradation trends. We then present an approach to analyze changes in long-term (decade-scale) average rain-use efficiency (an indicator of slowly responding vegetation structural changes) relative to changes in interannual-scale rainfall sensitivity (an indicator of landscape ability to respond rapidly to rainfall variability) to infer trends in greening/degradation of the watersheds in our sample regions. The predominance of increasing rain-use efficiency in our data supports earlier reports of a "greening" trend across the Sahel. However, there are strong regional differences in the extent and direction of change, and in the apparent role of changing woody and herbaceous components in driving those temporal trends.Sahel | desertification | rain-use efficiency | drylands | West Africa

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a vital component in land-atmosphere interactions.In drylands, over 90% of annual rainfall evaporates. The Nile Basin in Africa is about 42% dryland in a region experiencing rapid population growth and development. The relationship of ET with climate, vegetation and land cover in the basin during 2002-2011 is analyzed using thermal-based Simplified Surface Energy Balance Operational (SSEBop) ET, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)-based MODIS Terrestrial (MOD16) ET, MODIS-derived NDVI as a proxy for vegetation productivity and rainfall from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Interannual variability and trends are analyzed using established statistical methods. Analysis based on thermal-based ET revealed that >50% of the study area exhibited negative ET anomalies for 7 years (2009, driest), while >60% exhibited positive ET anomalies for 3 years (2007, wettest). NDVI-based monthly ET correlated strongly (r > 0.77) with vegetation than thermal-based ET (0.52 < r < 0.73) at p < 0.001. Climate-zone averaged thermal-based ET anomalies positively correlated (r = 0.6, p < 0.05) with rainfall in 4 of the 9 investigated climate zones. Thermal-based and NDVI-based ET estimates revealed minor discrepancies over rainfed croplands (60 mm/yr higher for thermal-based ET), but a significant divergence over wetlands (440 mm/yr higher for thermal-based ET). Only 5% of the study area exhibited statistically significant trends in ET.

[1] Water is a precious resource since the lives and livelihoods of human societies depend on their ability to access this resource. This is particularly true in arid and semiarid regions like the Sahel where permanent surface waters are rare and hydrological solutions (e.g., accessing deep aquifers) are often not feasible. This work is devoted to the determination of the spatial and temporal variations of surface water extent at 250 m over 9 years (2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011) for the Soudan-Sahel region using visible and infrared imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) from both Terra and Aqua platforms. The methodology is automatic and could be applied to other regions and sensors. We utilized a combination of two MODIS spectral indices: the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index. Accuracy assessments carried out on 743 lakes across 37 Landsat images selected in Sahelian Africa on the basis of a stratified sampling show that the new product is (i) reliably able to detect surface water bodies of approximately 50 ha and larger, (ii) improves on existing surface water body products, and (iii) can be used to monitor the seasonal distribution of surface water in semiarid regions.Citation: Kaptue´, A. T., N. P. Hanan, and L. Prihodko (2013), Characterization of the spatial and temporal variability of surface water in the Soudan-Sahel region of Africa,

We assess 32 years of vegetation change in the West African Sudano-Sahelian region following the drought events of the 1970s and 1980s. Change in decadal mean rain use efficiency is used to diagnose trends in woody vegetation that is expected to respond more slowly to post-drought rainfall gains, while change in the slope of the productivity–rainfall relationship is used to infer changing herbaceous conditions between early and late periods of the time series. The linearity/non-linearity of the productivity–rainfall relationship and its impact on the interpretation of overall greening trends, and specific woody and herbaceous vegetation trends, is also examined. Our results show a mostly positive association between productivity and rainfall (69% of pixels), which can be best described as linear (32%) or saturating (37%). Choosing the ‘best’ model at a specific location using Akaike Information Criterion has no discernible effect on the interpretation of overall greening or herbaceous trends, but does influence the detection of trends in woody vegetation. We conclude that widespread recovery in woody vegetation is responsible for the post-drought greening phenomenon reported elsewhere for the Sahel and Sudanian sub-regions. Meanwhile, trends in herbaceous vegetation are less pronounced, with no consistent indication towards either herbaceous degradation or recovery.

Analysis of the relationship between evapotranspiration (ET) and its natural and anthropogenic drivers is critical in water-limited basins such as the Nile. The spatiotemporal relationships of ET with rainfall and vegetation dynamics in the Nile Basin during 2002-2011 were analyzed using satellite-derived data. Non-parametric statistics were used to quantify ET-rainfall interactions and trends across land cover types and subbasins. We found that 65% of the study area (2.5 million km 2 ) showed significant (p < 0.05) positive correlations between monthly ET and rainfall, whereas 7% showed significant negative correlations. As expected, positive ET-rainfall correlations were observed over natural vegetation, mixed croplands/natural vegetation, and croplands, with a few subbasin-specific exceptions. In particular, irrigated croplands, wetlands and some forests exhibited negative correlations. Trend tests revealed spatial clusters of statistically significant trends in ET (6% of study area was negative; 12% positive), vegetation greenness (24% negative; 12% positive) and rainfall (11% negative; 1% positive) during 2002-2011. The Nile Delta, Ethiopian highlands and central Uganda regions showed decline in ET while central parts of Sudan, South Sudan, southwestern Ethiopia and northeastern Uganda showed increases. Except for a decline in OPEN ACCESSWater 2015, 7 4915 ET in central Uganda, the detected changes in ET (both positive and negative) were not associated with corresponding changes in rainfall. Detected declines in ET in the Nile delta and Ethiopian highlands were found to be attributable to anthropogenic land degradation, while the ET decline in central Uganda is likely caused by rainfall reduction.

An understanding of rainfall characteristics at multiple spatiotemporal scales is of great importance for hydrological, biogeochemical, and land surface modeling studies. In the present study, patterns of rainfall are analyzed over the African continent based on 3 hourly 0.25Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates between 1998 and 2012 to produce monthly statistical summaries. The selected rain event properties are multiyear means of precipitation total amount (mm), event frequency (number), rate (mm/h), and duration (h) calculated independently for each calendar month. Analysis of 3 hourly and daily events in the 1998-2012 period suggests that rainfall amount can be summarized using gamma probability density functions. Assuming stationarity, gamma probability density functions of the total depth of 3 hourly and daily events are estimated and then used for temporal downscaling of monthly rainfall estimates (past or future). As a result, we generate 3 hourly and daily rainfall estimates that are pixelwise statistically indistinguishable from the observations while preserving monthly totals. Example scripts are provided that can be used to access monthly statistics and implement downscaling using archival (or projected) monthly rainfall estimates. These statistics could also be utilized for the assessment of rainfall from atmospheric models.

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