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This study explores the impact of runoff curve number (CN) on the hydrological model outputs for the Morai watershed, Sindh-Pakistan, using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. The SCS-CN method is an empirical technique used to estimate rainfall-runoff volume from precipitation in small watersheds, and CN is an empirically derived parameter used to calculate direct runoff from a rainfall event. CN depends on soil type, its condition, and the land use and land cover (LULC) of an area. Precise knowledge of these factors was not available for the study area, and therefore, a range of values was selected to analyze the sensitivity of the model to the changing CN values. Sensitivity analysis involves a methodological manipulation of model parameters to understand their impacts on model outputs. A range of CN values from 40-90 was selected to determine their effects on model results at the sub-catchment level during the historic flood year of 2010. The model simulated 362 cumecs of peak discharge for CN=90; however, for CN=40, the discharge reduced substantially to 78 cumecs (a 78.46% reduction). Event-based comparison of water volumes for different groups of CN values—90-75, 80-75, 75-70, and 90-40 —showed reductions in water availability of 8.88%, 3.39%, 3.82%, and 41.81%, respectively. Although it is known that the higher the CN, the greater the discharge from direct runoff and the less initial losses, the sensitivity analysis quantifies that impact and determines the amount of associated discharges with changing CN values. The results of the case study suggest that CN is one of the most influential parameters in the simulation of direct runoff. Knowledge of accurate runoff is important in both wet (flood management) and dry periods (water availability). A wide range in the resulting water discharges highlights the importance of precise CN selection. Sensitivity analysis is an essential facet of establishing hydrological models in limited data watersheds. The range of CNs demonstrates an enormous quantitative consequence on direct runoff, the exactness of which is necessary for effective water resource planning and management. The method itself is not novel, but the way it is proposed here can justify investments in determining the accurate CN before initiating mega projects involving rainfall-runoff simulations. Even a small error in CN value may lead to serious consequences. In the current study, the sensitivity analysis challenges the strength of the results of a model in the presence of ambiguity regarding CN value.

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Seaweed is a valuable coastal resource for its use in food, cosmetics, and other items. This study proposed new remote sensing based seaweed enhancing index (SEI) using spectral bands of near-infrared (NIR) and shortwave-infrared (SWIR) of Landsat 8 satellite data. Nine Landsat 8 satellite images of years 2014, 2016, and 2018 for the January, February, and March months were utilized to test the performance of SEI. The seaweed patches in the coastal waters of Karachi, Pakistan were mapped using the SEI, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and floating algae index (FAI). Seaweed locations recorded during a field survey on February 26, 2014, were used to determine threshold values for all three indices. The accuracy of SEI was compared with NDVI while placing FAI as the reference index. The accuracy of NDVI and SEI were assessed by matching their spatial extent of seaweed cover with FAI enhanced seaweed area. SEI images of January 2016, February 2018, and March 2018 enhanced less than 50 percent of the corresponding FAI total seaweed areas. However, on these dates the NDVI performed very well, matching more than 95 percent of FAI seaweed coverage. Except for these three times, the performance of SEI in the remaining six images was either similar to NDVI or even better than NDVI. SEI enhanced 99 percent of FAI seaweed cover on January 2018 image. Overall, seaweed area not covered by FAI was greater in SEI than NDVI in almost all images, which needs to be further explored in future studies by collecting extensive field information to validate SEI mapped additional area beyond the extent of FAI seaweed cover. Based on these results, in the majority of the satellite temporal images selected for this study, the performance of the newly proposed index—SEI, was found either better than or similar to NDVI.

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