Summary1. The stress-gradient hypothesis (SGH) predicts an increasing importance of facilitative mechanisms relative to competition along gradients of increasing environmental stress. Although developed across a variety of ecosystems, the SGH's relevance to the dynamic tree-grass systems of global savannas remains unclear. Here, we present a meta-analysis of empirical studies to explore emergent patterns of tree-grass relationships in global savannas in the context of the SGH. 2. We quantified the net effect of trees on understorey grass production relative to production away from tree canopies along a rainfall gradient in tropical and temperate savannas and compared these findings to the predictions of the SGH. We also analysed soil and plant nutrient concentrations in subcanopy and open-grassland areas to investigate the potential role of nutrients in determining grass production in the presence and absence of trees. 3. Our meta-analysis revealed a shift from net competitive to net facilitative effects of trees on subcanopy grass production with decreasing annual precipitation, consistent with the SGH. We also found a significant difference between sites from Africa and North America, suggesting differences in tree-grass interactions in the savannas of tropical and temperate regions. 4. Nutrient analyses indicate no change in nutrient ratios along the rainfall gradient, but consistent nutrient enrichment under tree canopies. 5. Synthesis. Our results help to resolve questions about the SGH in semi-arid systems, demonstrating that in mixed tree-grass systems, trees facilitate grass growth in drier regions and suppress grass growth in wetter regions. Relationships differ, however, between African and North American sites representing tropical and temperate bioclimates, respectively. The results of this meta-analysis advance our understanding of tree-grass interactions in savannas and contribute a valuable data set to the developing theory behind the SGH.

Aim  We test the prediction that beta diversity (species turnover) and the decay of community similarity with distance depend on spatial resolution (grain). We also study whether patterns of beta diversity are related to variability in climate, land cover or geographic distance and how the independent effects of these variables depend on the spatial grain of the data. Location  Europe, Great Britain, Finland and Catalonia. Methods  We used data on European birds, plants, butterflies, amphibians and reptiles, and data on British plants, Catalonian birds and Finnish butterflies. We fitted two or three nested grids of varying resolutions to each of these datasets. For each grid we calculated differences in climate, differences in land‐cover composition (CORINE) and beta diversity (βsim, βJaccard) between all pairs of grid cells. In a separate analysis we looked specifically at pairs of adjacent grid cells (the first distance class). We then used variation partitioning to identify the magnitude of independent statistical associations (i.e. independent effects in the statistical sense) of climate, land cover and geographic distance with spatial patterns of beta diversity. Results  Beta diversity between grid cells at any given distance decreased with increasing grain. Geographic distance was always the most important predictor of beta diversity for all pairwise comparisons at the extent of Europe. Climate and land cover had weaker but distinct and grain‐dependent effects. Climate was more important at relatively coarse grains, whereas land‐cover effects were stronger at finer grains. In the country‐wide analyses, climate and land cover were more important than geographic distance. Climatic and land‐cover models performed poorly and showed no systematic grain dependence for beta diversity between adjacent grid cells. Main conclusions  We found that relationships between geographic distance and beta diversity, as well as the environmental correlates of beta diversity, are systematically grain dependent. The strong independent effect of distance indicates that, contrary to the current belief, a substantial fraction of species are missing from areas with a suitable environment. Moreover, the effects of geographic distance (at continental extents) and land cover (at fine grains) indicate that any species distribution modelling should take both environment and dispersal limitation into account.

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

The olive leaf phenolic composition of the Greek cultivars koroneiki, megaritiki and kalamon was determined using LC/MS. Furthermore, the antioxidant activity of olive leaf extracts from the above three cultivars, using solvents of increasing polarity (petroleum ether, dichloromethane, methanol and methanol/water: 60/40) was evaluated using the stable free radical diphenylpicrylhydrazyl (DPPH) test. Furthermore the oxidative stability index (OSI) was compared to that of the synthetic antioxidant TBHQ and commercial oleoresin (rosemary extract). The ability of phenolic compounds to inhibit the lipoxygenase (LOX) activity was also investigated. The ten main components determined in the olive tree leaf extracts for the cultivars koroneiki and kalamon were: secologanoside, dimethyloleuropein, oleuropein diglucoside, luteolin-7-O-glucoside, rutin, oleuropein, oleuroside, quercetin, ligstroside and verbascoside. Respective compounds for the cultivar megaritiki were: secologanoside, dimethyloleuropein, oleuropein diglucoside, luteolin7-O-glucoside, oleuropein, oleuroside, quercetin and ligstroside. In all three cultivars, oleuropein represented the main phenolic component. The solvent polarity influenced the total amount of the phenolic compounds determined. When methanol/water (60/40) was used, as solvent, more phenolic compounds were determined. The total amounts of phenols determined in the extracts, obtained by successive extractions using the above solvents, were 6,094, 5,579 and 6,196 mg/kg (mg gallic acid/kg dried olive leaves) for the cultivars megaritiki, kalamon and koroneiki, respectively. Among all extracts, methanol/water extracts exhibited the highest antioxidant activity as shown through the application of the DPPH and OSI methods. The OSI antioxidant activity followed the sequence: synthetic antioxidant TBHQ [ commercial oleoresin [ olive tree leaf extracts [ control. Likewise, methanol/water olive leaf extracts significantly inhibited soybean lipoxygenase, although some small differences in the activity among the olive leaf extracts of the different cultivars were observed. The solvent polarity as well as the amount of the extract influenced the inhibitory activity. A positive correlation was shown between the antioxidant activity of leaf extracts and the total phenol content.

Savanna ecosystems are dominated by two distinct plant life forms, grasses and trees, but the interactions between them are poorly understood. Here, we quantified the effects of isolated savanna trees on grass biomass as a function of distance from the base of the tree and tree height, across a precipitation gradient in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. Our results suggest that mean annual precipitation (MAP) mediates the nature of tree-grass interactions in these ecosystems, with the impact of trees on grass biomass shifting qualitatively between 550 and 737 mm MAP. Tree effects on grass biomass were facilitative in drier sites (MAP≤550 mm), with higher grass biomass observed beneath tree canopies than outside. In contrast, at the wettest site (MAP = 737 mm), grass biomass did not differ significantly beneath and outside tree canopies. Within this overall precipitation-driven pattern, tree height had positive effect on sub-canopy grass biomass at some sites, but these effects were weak and not consistent across the rainfall gradient. For a more synthetic understanding of tree-grass interactions in savannas, future studies should focus on isolating the different mechanisms by which trees influence grass biomass, both positively and negatively, and elucidate how their relative strengths change over broad environmental gradients.

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Summary1. Patch dynamics is a new, potentially unifying mechanism for the explanation of tree-grass coexistence in savannas. In this scale-explicit paradigm, savannas consist of patches in which a cyclical succession between woody and grassy dominance proceeds spatially asynchronously. The growing ecological and economic problem of shrub encroachment is a natural transient phase in this cycle.2. An important step towards understanding patterns at the landscape scale is achieved by investigating mechanisms at a smaller scale. We developed the spatially explicit individual-based simulation model SATCHMO to test the null hypothesis that cyclical succession cannot emerge from a realistic patch scale simulation model of the population dynamics of savanna woody species. 3. We calculated the partial temporal autocorrelation coefficient for 100 simulated time series of shrub cover over 500 years for time lags of up to 200 years to establish the existence and duration of successional cycles. We found a significant positive autocorrelation indicating the existence of cycles with a typical duration of about 33 years. 4. The shrub size frequency distributions over the course of a cycle showed shifts from dominance of small shrub sizes towards larger sizes during the increasing phase of a cycle and the reverse in the declining phase. This supports the three phase explanation as follows: (i) an initial phase when spatially and temporally overlapping favourable conditions lead to mass recruitment of shrubs; (ii) a build-up phase when the shrub cohort grows; and (iii) a break-down phase when increased competition due to crowding and unfavourable conditions lead to the break-down of the shrub cohort. The frequency distribution of shrub age at death over 10 simulations was also in agreement with this explanation. 5. We investigated the relationship between shrub cover, annual precipitation and time-lagged shrub cover to identify the driver of the cyclical successions. More than 90% of the variation in shrub cover was explained by shrub cover of the previous year, precipitation, and their interaction. 6. With the demonstration of precipitation-driven cyclical succession at the patch scale, we show that the mechanistic, temporal component of patch dynamics can be used to explain tree-grass coexistence in semi-arid savannas.