How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.
Demand response management has become one of the key enabling technologies for smart grids. Motivated by the increasing demand response incentives offered by service operators, more customers are subscribing to various demand response programs. However, with growing customer participation, the problem of determining the optimal loads to be curtailed in a microgrid during contingencies within a feasible time frame becomes computationally hard. This paper proposes an efficient approximation algorithm for event-based demand response management in microgrids. In event-based management, it is important to curtail loads as fast as possible to maintain the stability of a microgrid during the islanded mode in a scalable manner. A simple greedy approach is presented that can rapidly determine a close-to-optimal load curtailment scheme to maximize the aggregate customer utility in milliseconds for a large number of customers. This paper further derives a novel theoretical guarantee of the gap between the proposed efficient algorithm and the optimal solution (that may be computationally hard to obtain). The performance of algorithm is corroborated extensively by simulations with up to thousands of customers. For the sake of practicality, the proposed event-based demand response management algorithm is applied to a feeder from the Canadian benchmark distribution system. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach efficiently optimizes microgrid operation during islanded mode while maintaining appropriate voltage levels and network constrains.
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones, are being increasingly deployed throughout the globe as a means to streamline monitoring, inspection, mapping, and logistic routines. When dispatched on autonomous missions, drones require an intelligent decision-making system for trajectory planning and tour optimization. Given the limited capacity of their onboard batteries, a key design challenge is to ensure the underlying algorithms can efficiently optimize the mission objectives along with recharging operations during longhaul flights. With this in view, the present work undertakes a comprehensive study on automated tour management systems for an energy-constrained drone: (1) We construct a machine learning model that estimates the energy expenditure of typical multi-rotor drones while accounting for real-world aspects and extrinsic meteorological factors. (2) Leveraging this model, the joint program of flight mission planning and recharging optimization is formulated as a multi-criteria Asymmetric Traveling Salesman Problem (ATSP), wherein a drone seeks for the time-optimal energy-feasible tour that visits all the target sites and refuels whenever necessary. (3) We devise an efficient approximation algorithm with provable worst-case performance guarantees and implement it in a drone management system, which supports real-time flight path tracking and re-computation in dynamic environments. (4) The effectiveness and practicality of the proposed approach are validated through extensive numerical simulations as well as real-world experiments. Note to Practitioners-This study is stimulated by the need for developing pragmatic and provably efficient automated tour management systems for UAVs deployed on energy-constrained, long-distance flight missions. As such, UAVs provide a nifty platform for facilitating environmental monitoring, disaster management, transport of medical supplies, as well as expediting last-mile deliveries. However, existing path planners generally Manuscript
A routine task faced by Microgrid (MG) operators is to optimally allocate incoming power demand requests while accounting for the underlying power distribution network and the associated constraints. Typically, this has been formulated as an offline optimization problem for day-ahead scheduling, assuming perfect forecasting of the demands. In practice, however, these loads are often requested in an ad-hoc manner and the control decisions are to be computed without any foresight into future inputs. With this in view, the present work contributes to the modeling and algorithmic foundations of real-time load scheduling problem in a demand response (DR) program. We model the problem within an AC Optimal Power Flow (OPF) framework and design an efficient online algorithm that outputs scheduling decisions provided with information on past and present inputs solely. Furthermore, a rigorous theoretical bound on the competitive ratio of the algorithm is derived. Practicality of the proposed approach is corroborated through numerical simulations on two benchmark MG systems against a representative greedy algorithm.
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