A Smart Grid (SG) is a modernized grid to provide efficient, reliable and economic energy to the consumers. Energy is the most important resource in the world. An efficient energy distribution is required as smart devices are increasing dramatically. The forecasting of electricity consumption is supposed to be a major constituent to enhance the performance of SG. Various learning algorithms have been proposed to solve the forecasting problem. The sole purpose of this work is to predict the price and load efficiently. The first technique is Enhanced Logistic Regression (ELR) and the second technique is Enhanced Recurrent Extreme Learning Machine (ERELM). ELR is an enhanced form of Logistic Regression (LR), whereas, ERELM optimizes weights and biases using a Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO). Classification and Regression Tree (CART), Relief-F and Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) are used for feature selection and extraction. On the basis of selected features, classification is performed using ELR. Cross validation is done for ERELM using Monte Carlo and K-Fold methods. The simulations are performed on two different datasets. The first dataset, i.e., UMass Electric Dataset is multi-variate while the second dataset, i.e., UCI Dataset is uni-variate. The first proposed model performed better with UMass Electric Dataset than UCI Dataset and the accuracy of second model is better with UCI than UMass. The prediction accuracy is analyzed on the basis of four different performance metrics: Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The proposed techniques are then compared with four benchmark schemes. The comparison is done to verify the adaptivity of the proposed techniques. The simulation results show that the proposed techniques outperformed benchmark schemes. The proposed techniques efficiently increased the prediction accuracy of load and price. However, the computational time is increased in both scenarios. ELR achieved almost 5% better results than Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and almost 3% than LR. While, ERELM achieved almost 6% better results than ELM and almost 5% than RELM. However, the computational time is almost 20% increased with ELR and 50% with ERELM. Scalability is also addressed for the proposed techniques using half-yearly and yearly datasets. Simulation results show that ELR gives 5% better results while, ERELM gives 6% better results when used for yearly dataset.
In order to ensure optimal and secure functionality of Micro Grid (MG), energy management system plays vital role in managing multiple electrical load and distributed energy technologies. With the evolution of Smart Grids (SG), energy generation system that includes renewable resources is introduced in MG. This work focuses on coordinated energy management of traditional and renewable resources. Users and MG with storage capacity is taken into account to perform energy management efficiently. First of all, two stage Stackelberg game is formulated. Every player in game theory tries to increase its payoff and also ensures user comfort and system reliability. In the next step, two forecasting techniques are proposed in order to forecast Photo Voltaic Cell (PVC) generation for announcing optimal prices. Furthermore, existence and uniqueness of Nash Equilibrium (NE) of energy management algorithm are also proved. In simulation, results clearly show that proposed game theoretic approach along with storage capacity optimization and forecasting techniques give benefit to both players, i.e., users and MG. The proposed technique Gray wolf optimized Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (GARIMA) gives 40% better result and Cuckoo Search Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (CARIMA) gives 30% better results as compared to existing techniques.
The significance of electricity cannot be overlooked as all fields of life like material production, health care, educational sector, etc., depend upon it to render consistent and high-quality services, increase productivity and business continuity. To this end, energy operators have experienced a continuous increasing trend in the electricity demand for the past few decades. This may cause many issues like load shedding, increased electricity bills, imbalance between supply and demand, etc. Therefore, forecasting of electricity demand using efficient techniques is crucial for the energy operators to decide about optimal unit commitment and to make electricity dispatch plans. It also helps to avoid wastage as well as the shortage of energy. In this study, a novel forecasting model, known as ELS-net is proposed, which is a combination of an Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method, multi-model Ensemble Bi Long Short-Term Memory (EBiLSTM) forecasting technique and Support Vector Machine (SVM). In the proposed model, EEMD is used to distinguish between linear and non-linear intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), EBiLSTM is used to forecast the non-linear IMFs and SVM is employed to forecast the linear IMFs. Using separate forecasting techniques for linear and non-linear IMFs decreases the computational complexity of the model. Moreover, SVM requires low computational time as compared to EBiLSTM for linear IMFs. Simulations are performed to examine the effectiveness of the proposed model using two different datasets: New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria (VIC). For performance evaluation, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) are used as performance metrics. From the simulation results, it is obvious that the proposed ELS-net model outperforms the start-of-the-art techniques, such as EMD-BILSTM-SVM, EMD-PSO-GA-SVR, BiLSTM, MLP and SVM in terms of forecasting accuracy and minimum execution time.
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