The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.
On 26.1.2014 and 3.2.2014 two strong earthquakes of M w 6.0 and M w 5.9 ruptured the western Cephalonia Isl., Ionian Sea (Greece), at the SSW-wards continuation of the Lefkada segment of the Cephalonia Transform Fault Zone (CTFZ), causing considerable damage and a variety of ground failures. High-precision relocation of the aftershocks implies that the seismogenic layer was of 35 km in length (L) striking NNE-SSW, of 10 km maximum in width and 15 km in thickness. Two aftershock 2014 earthquakes ruptured on land western Cephalonia we suggested to revise the CTFZ geometry in the sense that the Lefkada CTFZ segment does not terminates offshore NW Cephalonia but extends towards SSW in western Cephalonia.
Three strong earthquakes ruptured the northwest Thessaly area, Central Greece, on the 3, 4 and 12 March 2021. Since the area did not rupture by strong earthquakes in the instrumental period of seismicity, it is of great interest to understand the seismotectonics and source properties of these earthquakes. We combined relocated hypocenters, inversions of teleseismic P-waveforms and of InSAR data, and moment tensor solutions to produce three fault models. The first shock (Mw = 6.3) occurred in a fault segment of strike 314° and dip NE41°. It caused surface subsidence −40 cm and seismic slip 1.2–1.5 m at depth ~10 km. The second earthquake (Mw = 6.2) occurred to the NW on an antithetic subparallel fault segment (strike 123°, dip SW44°). Seismic slip of 1.2 m occurred at depth of ~7 km, while surface subsidence −10 cm was determined. Possibly the same fault was ruptured further to the NW on 12 March (Mw = 5.7, strike 112°, dip SSW42°) that caused ground subsidence −5 cm and seismic slip of 1.0 m at depth ~10 km. We concluded that three blind, unknown and unmapped so far normal fault segments were activated, the entire system of which forms a graben-like structure in the area of northwest Thessaly.
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