No abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to make a prediction of China's energy consumption structure from the perspective of compositional data and construct a novel grey model for forecasting compositional data.Design/methodology/approachDue to the existing grey prediction model based on compositional data cannot effectively excavate the evolution law of correlation dimension sequence of compositional data. Thus, the adaptive discrete grey prediction model with innovation term based on compositional data is proposed to forecast the integral structure of China's energy consumption. The prediction results from the new model are then compared with three existing approaches and the comparison results indicate that the proposed model generally outperforms existing methods. A further prediction of China's energy consumption structure is conducted into a future horizon from 2021 to 2035 by using the model.FindingsChina's energy structure will change significantly in the medium and long term and China's energy consumption structure can reach the long-term goal. Besides, the proposed model can better mine and predict the development trend of single time series after the transformation of compositional data.Originality/valueThe paper considers the dynamic change of grey action quantity, the characteristics of compositional data and the impact of new information about the system itself on the current system development trend and proposes a novel adaptive discrete grey prediction model with innovation term based on compositional data, which fills the gap in previous studies.

Renewable energy represented by wind energy plays an increasingly important role in China's national energy system. The accurate prediction of wind power generation is of great significance to China's energy planning and power grid dispatch. However, due to the late development of the wind power industry in China and the lag of power enterprise information, there are little historical data available at present. Therefore, the traditional large sample prediction method is difficult to be applied to the forecasting of wind power generation in China. For this kind of small sample and poor information problem, the grey prediction method can give a good solution. Thus, given the seasonal and long memory characteristics of the seasonal wind power generation, this paper constructs a seasonal discrete grey prediction model based on collaborative optimization. On the one hand, the model is based on moving average filtering algorithm to realize the recognition of seasonal and trend features. On the other hand, based on the optimization of fractional order and initial value, the collaborative optimization of trend and season is realized. To verify the practicability and accuracy of the proposed model, this paper uses the model to predict the quarterly wind power generation of China from 2012Q1 to 2020Q1, and compares the prediction results with the prediction results of the traditional GM(1,1) model, SGM(1,1) model and Holt-Winters model. The results are shown that the proposed model has a strong ability to capture the trend and seasonal fluctuation characteristics of wind power generation. And the long-term forecasts are valid if the existing wind power expansion capacity policy is maintained in the next four years. Based on the forecast of China’s wind power generation from 2021Q2 to 2024Q2 in the future, it is predicted that China's wind power generation will reach 239.09 TWh in the future, which will be beneficial to the realization of China's energy-saving and emission reduction targets.

Accurate prediction of long‐term and short‐term clean energy production is the basis for understanding short‐term clean energy supply capacity, long‐term clean energy development trend and evaluating the effect of energy policies. However, under the circumstances of the large time span, the insufficient data samples and the periodic characteristics of seasonal clean energy production make the traditional grey prediction model prone to produce forecasting deviations. Given this situation, a novel seasonal fractional‐order full‐order time power discrete grey prediction model is initially proposed to deal with long‐term clean energy production sequences featured with nonlinearity and periodicity. Based on the proposed model, we also propose a data‐based algorithm to select the model structure adaptively. To prove the practicability of the new model for nonlinear long‐term development trend, monthly periodic time series and quarterly periodic time series, this article uses the new model to predict annual hydropower capacity in North America, monthly natural gas production in China and quarterly solar power generation in China. And the prediction results are compared with the existing grey models and non‐grey prediction models. Different methods including GM (1,1), DGM (1,1), NGM (1,1), ARGM (1,1), ENGM (1,1), Verhulst, CCRGM (1,1), FOTP‐DGMr (1,1), PFSM (1,1), Holt‐winters model, SARIMA model, SGM, HP‐GM and DGGM are used as benchmarks. In experiments, the MAPE of the proposed model is 2.92%, 2.43%, and 7.87%, respectively. The results of empirical analysis indicate that the proposed model generally outperform the benchmark model as it can well capture nonlinear long‐term development trend and seasonal characteristics.