Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance and environmental concerns in tropical deciduous forests of south India. In this study, we use fuzzy set theory integrated with decision-making algorithm in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to map forest fire risk. Fuzzy set theory implements classes or groupings of data with boundaries that are not sharply defined (i.e., fuzzy) and consists of a rule base, membership functions, and an inference procedure. We used satellite remote sensing datasets in conjunction with topographic, vegetation, climate, and socioeconomic datasets to infer the causative factors of fires. Spatial-level data on these biophysical and socioeconomic parameters have been aggregated at the district level and have been organized in a GIS framework. A participatory multicriteria decision-making approach involving Analytical Hierarchy Process has been designed to arrive at a decision matrix that identified the important causative factors of fires. These expert judgments were then integrated using spatial fuzzy decision-making algorithm to map the forest fire risk. Results from this study were quite useful in identifying potential "hotspots" of fire risk, where forest fire protection measures can be taken in advance. Further, this study also demonstrates the potential of multicriteria analysis integrated with GIS as an effective tool in assessing "where and when" forest fires will most likely occur.

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In this study, we used fire count datasets derived from Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) satellite to characterize spatial patterns in fire occurrences across highly diverse geographical, vegetation and topographic gradients in the Indian region. For characterizing the spatial patterns of fire occurrences, observed fire point patterns were tested against the hypothesis of a complete spatial random (CSR) pattern using three different techniques, the quadrat analysis, nearest neighbor analysis and Ripley's K function. Hierarchical nearest neighboring technique was used to depict the 'hotspots' of fire incidents. Of the different states, highest fire counts were recorded in Madhya Pradesh (14.77%) followed by Gujarat (10.86%), Maharastra (9.92%), Mizoram (7.66%), Jharkhand (6.41%), etc. With respect to the vegetation categories, highest number of fires were recorded in agricultural regions (40.26%) followed by tropical moist deciduous vegetation (12.72), dry deciduous vegetation (11.40%), abandoned slash and burn secondary forests (9.04%), tropical montane forests (8.07%) followed by others. Analysis of fire counts based on elevation and slope range suggested that maximum number of fires occurred in low and medium elevation types and in very low to low-slope categories. Results from three different spatial techniques for spatial pattern suggested clustered pattern in fire events compared to CSR. Most importantly, results from Ripley's K statistic suggested that fire events are highly clustered at a lag-distance of 125 miles. Hierarchical nearest neighboring clustering technique identified significant clusters of fire 'hotspots' in different states in northeast and central India. The implications of these results in fire management and mitigation were discussed. Also, this study highlights the potential of spatial point pattern statistics in environmental monitoring and assessment studies with special reference to fire events in the Indian region.

Bi-weekly National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-advanced very high-resolution radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) satellite data covering a fourteen-year time period (1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003) were used to examine spatial patterns in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and their relationships with environmental variables covering tropical evergreen forests of the Western Ghats, India. NDVI values and corresponding environmental variables were extracted from 23 different forested sites using the NOAA-AVHRR global inventory monitoring and modelling studies (GIMMS) dataset. We specifically used the partial least square (PLS) multivariate regression technique that combines features from principal component analysis and multiple regression to link spatial patterns in NDVI with the environmental variables. PLS regression analysis suggested the two-component model to be the best model, explaining nearly 71% of the variance in the NDVI datasets with relatively good R 2 value of 0.78 and a predicted R 2 value of 0.74. The most important positive predictors for NDVI included Riva's continentality index, precipitation indicators summed over different quarters, average precipitation and elevation. Also, the results from PLS regression clearly suggested that bio-climatic indicators that relied only on precipitation parameters had much more positive influence than indicators that combined both temperature and precipitation together. These results highlight the climatic controls of vegetation vigor in evergreen forests and have implications for monitoring bio-spheric activity, developing prognostic phenology models and deriving land cover maps in the Western Ghats region of India.

Fires are one of the major causes of forest disturbance and destruction in several dry deciduous forests of southern India. In this study, we use remote sensing data sets in conjunction with topographic, vegetation, climate and socioeconomic factors for determining the potential causes of forest fires in Andhra Pradesh, India. Spatial patterns in fire characteristics were analyzed using SPOT satellite remote sensing datasets. We then used nineteen different metrics in concurrence with fire count datasets in a robust statistical framework to arrive at a predictive model that best explained the variation in fire counts across diverse geographical and climatic gradients. Results suggested that, of all the states in India, fires in Andhra Pradesh constituted nearly 13.53% of total fires. District wise estimates of fire counts for Andhra Pradesh suggested that, Adilabad, Cuddapah, Kurnool, Prakasham and Mehbubnagar had relatively highest number of fires compared to others. Results from statistical analysis suggested that of the nineteen parameters, population density, demand of metabolic energy (DME), compound topographic index, slope, aspect, average temperature of the warmest quarter (ATWQ) along with literacy rate explained 61.1% of total variation in fire datasets. Among these, DME and literacy rate were found to be negative predictors of forest fires. In overall, this study represents the first statewide effort that evaluated the causative factors of fire at district level using biophysical and socioeconomic datasets. Results from this study identify important biophysical and socioeconomic factors for assessing 'forest fire danger' in the study area. Our results also identify potential 'hotspots' of fire risk, where fire protection measures can be taken in advance. Further this study also demonstrate the usefulness of best-subset regression approach integrated with GIS, as an effective method to assess 'where and when' forest fires will most likely occur.

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Information on fires in different geographic regions of India is relatively scarce. This study quantifies spatial and temporal patterns in fire occurrences covering different states and districts in India. Two important scientific questions are answered in this study: (1) how are the fire events distributed across different geographical regions? (2) are there any specific districts where fire events clustered across space and time? To address these questions, Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) derived satellite fire counts from 1997-2006 were used and the datasets were analysed using spatial scan statistic. Spatial scan statistic provides a test statistic for most likely 'hotspot' spatial clusters, based on the likelihood ratio test and Monte Carlo simulation. Results from geographical analysis based on state boundaries suggested Maharastra state had the highest number of fires followed by Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Orissa, etc., during the 10-year period. Among the several districts, the spatial scan statistic identified the most likely cluster of fire events in Dausa, Karauli, Sawai Madhopur, Bharatpur and Alwar in addition to several other secondary clusters, with high statistical significance. These results are based on a large sample of cases, and they provide convincing evidence of spatial clustering of fire events in the Indian region. Results relating to hotspot areas of fire risk can guide policy makers towards the best management strategies for avoiding damages to forests, human life and personal property in the 'hotspot' districts.fire monitoring, conservation, hotspot areas, India,