Tundra ecosystems are vulnerable to hydrocarbon development, in part because small-scale, low-intensity disturbances can affect vegetation, permafrost soils, and wildlife out of proportion to their spatial extent. Scaling up to include human residents, tightly integrated arctic social-ecological systems (SESs) are believed similarly susceptible to industrial impacts and climate change. In contrast to northern Alaska and Canada, most terrestrial and aquatic components of West Siberian oil and gas fields are seasonally exploited by migratory herders, hunters, fishers, and domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus L.). Despite anthropogenic fragmentation and transformation of a large proportion of the environment, recent socioeconomic upheaval, and pronounced climate warming, we find the Yamal-Nenets SES highly resilient according to a few key measures. We detail the remarkable extent to which the system has successfully reorganized in response to recent shocks and evaluate the limits of the system's capacity to respond. Our analytical approach combines quantitative methods with participant observation to understand the overall effects of rapid land use and climate change at the level of the entire Yamal system, detect thresholds crossed using surrogates, and identify potential traps. Institutional constraints and drivers were as important as the documented ecological changes. Particularly crucial to success is the unfettered movement of people and animals in space and time, which allows them to alternately avoid or exploit a wide range of natural and anthropogenic habitats. However, expansion of infrastructure, concomitant terrestrial and freshwater ecosystem degradation, climate change, and a massive influx of workers underway present a looming threat to future resilience. tundra disturbance ͉ Rangifer tarandus ͉ reindeer nomadism ͉ oil and gas activities ͉ remote sensing

Question: How does the composition and species richness of understorey vegetation associate with changing abundance of deciduous shrub canopies? What are the species‐specific associations between shrubs and understorey plants? Location: Tundra habitats along an over 1000‐km long range, spanning from NW Fennoscandia to the Yamal Peninsula in northwest Russia. Methods: The data from 758 vegetation sample plots from 12 sites comprised cover estimates of all plant species, including bryophytes and lichens, and canopy height of deciduous shrubs. The relationships between shrub volume and cover of plant groups and species richness of vegetation were investigated. In addition, species‐specific associations between understorey species and shrub volume were analysed. Results: Shrub abundance was shown to be associated with the composition of understorey vegetation, and the association patterns were consistent across the study sites. Increased forb cover was positively associated with shrub volume, whereas bryophyte, lichen, dwarf shrub and graminoid cover decreased in association with increasing volume of deciduous shrubs. The total species richness of vegetation declined with increasing shrub volume. Conclusions: The results suggest that an increase of shrubs – due to climatic warming or a decrease in grazing pressure – is likely to have strong effects on plant–plant interactions and lead to a decrease in the diversity of understorey vegetation.

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