The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of species are influenced by spatiotemporal variation in population size. Unfortunately, we are usually limited in our ability to investigate the numerical dynamics of natural populations across large spatial scales and over long periods of time. Here we combine mechanistic and statistical approaches to reconstruct continuous-time infection dynamics of an obligate fungal pathogen on the basis of discrete-time occurrence data. The pathogen, Podosphaera plantaginis, infects its host plant, Plantago lanceolata, in a metapopulation setting where the presence of the pathogen has been recorded annually for 6 years in approximately 4,000 host populations across an area of 50 km x 70 km in Finland. The dynamics are driven by strong seasonality, with a high extinction rate during winter and epidemic expansion in summer for local pathogen populations. We are able to identify with our model the regions in the study area where overwintering has been most successful. These overwintering sites represent foci that initiate local epidemics during the growing season. There is striking heterogeneity at the regional scale in both the overwintering success of the pathogen and the encounter intensity between the host and the pathogen. Such heterogeneity has profound implications for the coevolutionary dynamics of the interaction.
Three different sampling units in current use and different sampling strategies were tested. Randomly placed microscope fields are good in estimating the daily mean concentration, but very big sample size is needed. Traverses across the slide in systematic order are best to estimate the shortterm concentrations and diurnal variation. A formula for the estimation of the error in one transverse traverse is given. Twelve transverse traverses in systematic order is also enough to estimate the daily mean concentration. One or two traverses along the length of the slide give often unreliable estimates because of the irregularities in the transverse variation of the particle concentrations on the slide. For the same reason it is not safe to choose an "effectively collecting area". Instead the whole width of the tape should be studied.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.