This paper outlines the development of world trade from 1800 to 1938. It relies on a newly compiled database, which, unlike previous works (e.g. Lewis 1981), reports series of imports and exports at current and constant prices and at current and constant (1913) borders for almost all existing polities. In the first sections, we outline the estimation methodology and assess the reliability of the series (now available athttp://www.uc3m.es/tradehist_db). World trade grew very fast throughout the «long» 19thcentury, but growth rates were higher before 1870. We measure the effects of war and the Great Depression on total trade and trade by continent and polity. Within this general upward trend, the performance of polities differed by geographical location, level of development, political status and factor endowment. Finally, we estimate trends in the share of primary products, which declined until World War One, with an acceleration in the second half of the 19thcentury.
This paper compares the wave of globalization before the outbreak of the Great Recession in 2007 with its alleged historical antecedent before the outbreak of World War One. We describe trends in trade and openness, estimate the gains from trade and investigate the proximate causes of the growth of openness. We argue that the conventional wisdom has to be revised. The first wave of globalization started around 1820 and culminated around 1870. In the next century, trade continued to grow, with the exception of the Great Depression, but openness and gains fluctuated widely. Growth resumed in the early 1970s. By 2007, the world was more open than a century earlier and its inhabitants gained from trade substantially more than their ancestors did. The current wave of globalization, in spite of some similarities with previous trends, has no historical antecedents. Keywords 1 A tale of two globalizations: gains from trade and openness 1800-2010 AbstractThis paper compares the wave of globalization before the outbreak of the Great Recession in 2007 with its alleged historical antecedent before the outbreak of World War One. We describe trends in trade and openness, estimate the gains from trade and investigate the proximate causes of the growth of openness. We argue that the conventional wisdom has to be revised. The first wave of globalization started around 1820 and culminated around 1870. In the next century, trade continued to grow, with the exception of the Great Depression, but openness and gains fluctuated widely. Growth resumed in the early 1970s. By 2007, the world was more open than a century earlier and its inhabitants gained from trade substantially more than their ancestors did. The current wave of globalization, in spite of some similarities with previous trends, has no historical antecedents.
Argentine export growth before the First World War is considered one of the most relevant variables in order to understand the main characteristics of Argentina's long-run modern economic growth properly. The lack of accuracy of the official export series, especially the relative official values used, lies behind some of the controversies and doubts of the historiography when addressing the causes and consequences of Argentina's international convergence. We have used empirical evidence to test the accuracy of quantities and value exports records, first, according to their import partners' records and, second, according to international market prices. Results show that the hypothesis of export price undervaluation bias is correct. In the light of these results we reconstructed a new Argentine export f.o.b. values and price index using international prices valued in pounds sterling which allows us to offer a new proposal indicating a more dynamic Argentine export growth during the Belle Époque years. Keywords
The Cobden-Chevalier Treaty of 1860 is regarded as central turning point in nineteenth-century trade policy, inaugurating a free trade era in Western Europe. We reexamine this story and put it into global perspective with a new database covering more than 7,500 data points for 11categories of manufactures in 41 countries and colonies around the world between 1846 and 1880. It reveals that bilateralism after 1860 reinforced a process already underway before. Nevertheless, we highlight is that trade liberalization was a global phenomenon over most of our period, so that the prominent British case appears as typical rather than exceptional. Keywords
In order to understand Uruguayan long-run economic evolution it becomes crucial to interpret its export performance during the First Globalization. The lack of accuracy of official figures, especially official prices used, calls for an adjustment of Uruguayan exports series. We have used empirical evidence to test the accuracy of quantities and values of exports' records, first, according to import partners' records and, second, according to international market prices. Results show a general undervaluation of official export values during the period along with severe distortions in the registers caused by transit trade. We reconstructed new Uruguayan export f.o.b values and export price index, which present an export evolution more unstable and less dynamic than the one showed by its neighbor Argentina.
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