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Portugal, with a relatively high fatality rate for occupational accidents, faces the challenge of reducing fatalities with limited funding. This research identifies significant predictors in Portugal and estimates probabilities of occurrence. The model, based on applied logistic regression, suggests that policy‐makers should focus prevention efforts on older workers; persons with permanent contracts; those employed by large enterprises or at workplaces in the trade or services sectors; and those exposed to deviations by overflow, overturn, leak, flow, vaporization or emissions that are likely to cause musculoskeletal disorders, wounds, fractures or traumatic amputations.

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