No abstract

Background-Several noninvasive methods are available to investigate the severity of extracoronary atherosclerotic disease. No population-based study has yet examined whether differences exist between these measures with regard to their predictive value for myocardial infarction (MI) or whether a given measure of atherosclerosis has predictive value independently of the other measures. Methods and Results-At the baseline (1990 -1993) examination of the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study among subjects age Ն55 years, carotid plaques and intima-media thickness (IMT) were measured by ultrasound, abdominal aortic atherosclerosis by x-ray, and lower-extremity atherosclerosis by computation of the ankle-arm index.In the present study, 6389 subjects were included; 258 cases of incident MI occurred before January 1, 2000. , although differences were small. The hazard ratio for MI for subjects with severe atherosclerosis according to a composite atherosclerosis score was 2.77 (1.70 to 4.52) compared with subjects with no atherosclerosis. The predictive value of MI for a given measure of atherosclerosis was independent of the other atherosclerosis measures. Conclusions-Noninvasive measures of extracoronary atherosclerosis are strong predictors of MI. The relatively crude measures directly assessing plaques in the carotid artery and abdominal aorta predict MI equally well as the more precisely measured carotid IMT.

Background-Few studies have quantified the relation between carotid plaques and stroke in asymptomatic patients, and limited data exist on the importance of location of plaques or the association with subtypes of cerebral infarction. We investigated the relationship between carotid plaques, measured at different locations, and risk of stroke and subtypes of cerebral infarction in a population-based study. Methods and Results-The study was based on the Rotterdam Study and included 4217 neurologically asymptomatic subjects aged 55 years or older. Presence of carotid plaques at 6 locations in the carotid arteries was assessed at baseline. Severity was categorized according to the number of affected sites. After a mean follow-up of 5.2 years, 160 strokes had occurred. Data were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Plaques increased the risk of stroke and cerebral infarction Ϸ1.5-fold, irrespective of plaque location. Severe carotid plaques increased the risk of nonlacunar infarction in anterior (RR 3.2 [95% CI, 1.1 to 9.7]) but not in posterior circulation (RR 0.6 [95% CI, 0.1 to 4.9]). A Ͼ10-fold increased risk of lacunar infarction was found in subjects with severe plaques (RR 10.8 [95% CI, 1.7 to 69.7]). No clear difference in risk estimates was seen between ipsilateral and contralateral infarction. Conclusions-Carotid plaques increase the risk of stroke and cerebral infarction, irrespective of their location. Plaques increase the risk of infarctions in the anterior but not in the posterior circulation. It is likely that carotid plaques in neurologically asymptomatic subjects are both markers of generalized atherosclerosis and sources of thromboemboli.

Background and Purpose-We determined the contribution of common carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) in the prediction of future coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease when added to established risk factors. Methods-We used data from a nested case-control study comprising 374 subjects with either an incident stroke or a myocardial infarction and 1496 controls. All subjects were aged 55 years and older and participated in the Rotterdam Study. Mean follow-up was 4.2 years (range, 0.1 to 6.5 years). We evaluated which correlates of coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease contribute to the prediction of either a new incident myocardial infarction or a stroke. Logistic regression modeling and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC area) were used to quantify the predictive value of the established risk factors and the added value of IMT. Results-The ROC area of a model with age and sex only was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.62 to 0.69). Independent risk factors were previous myocardial infarction and stroke, diabetes mellitus, smoking, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and total and HDL cholesterol levels. These risk factors increased the ROC area from 0.65 to 0.72 (95% CI, 0.69 to 0.75). This model correctly predicted 17% of all subjects with coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. When common carotid IMT was added to the previous model, the ROC area increased to 0.75 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.78). When only the IMT measurement was used, the ROC area was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.68 to 0.74), and 14% of all subjects were correctly predicted. There was no difference in ROC area when different measurement sites were used. Conclusions-Adding IMT to a risk function for coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease does not result in a substantial increase in the predictive value when used as a screening tool. (Stroke. 2001;32:1532-1538.)