Decision Support Systems (DSS) are complex technological tools, which enable an accurate and complete scenario awareness, by integrating data from both "external" (physical) situation and current behaviour and state of functioning of the technological systems. The aim is to produce a scenario analysis and to guess identify educated the most efficient strategies to cope with possible crises. In the domain of Critical Infrastructures (CI) Protection, DSS can be used to support strategy elaboration from CI operators, to improve emergency managers capabilities, to improve quality and efficiency of preparedness actions. For these reasons, the EU project CIPRNet, among others, has realised a new DSS designed to help operators to deal with the complex task of managing multi-sectorial CI crises, due to natural events, where many different CI might be involved, either directly or via cascading effects produced by (inter-)dependency mechanisms. This DSS, called CIPCast, is able to produce a real-time operational risk forecast of CI in a given area; other than usable in a real-time mode, CIPCast could also be used as scenario builder, by using event simulators enabling the simulation of synthetic events whose impacts on CI could be emulated. A major improvement of CIPCast is its capability of measuring societal consequences related to the unavailability of primary services such as those delivered by CI.

Time series can be transformed into graphs called horizontal visibility graphs (HVGs) in order to gain useful insights. Here, the maximum eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix associated to the HVG derived from several time series is calculated. The maximum eigenvalue methodology is able to discriminate between chaos and randomness and is suitable for short time series, hence for experimental results. An application to the United States gross domestic product data is given.

Historic areas (HAs) are highly vulnerable to natural hazards, including earthquakes, that can cause severe damage, if not total destruction. This paper proposes methods that can be implemented through a geographical information system to assess earthquake-induced physical damages and the resulting impacts on the functions of HAs and to monitor their resilience. For the assessment of damages, making reference to the universally recognised procedure of convoluting hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, this paper proposes (a) a framework for assessing hazard maps of both real and end-user defined earthquakes; (b) a classification of the exposed elements of the built environment; and (c) an index-based seismic vulnerability assessment method for heritage buildings. Moving towards the continuous monitoring of resilience, an index-based assessment method is proposed to quantify how the functions of HAs recover over time. The implementation of the proposed methods in an ad hoc customized WebGIS Decision Support System, referred to as ARCH DSS, is demonstrated in this paper with reference to the historic area of Camerino-San Severino (Italy). Our conclusions show how ARCH DSS can inform and contribute to increasing awareness of the vulnerabilities of HAs and of the severity of the potential impacts, thus supporting effective decision making on mitigation strategies, post-disaster response, and build back better.

Recent seismic event worldwide proved how fragile the electric power system can be to seismic events. Decision Support Systems (DSSs) could have a critical role in assessing the seismic risk of electric power networks and in enabling asset managers to test the effectiveness of alternative mitigation strategies and investments on resilience. This paper exemplifies the potentialities of CIPCast, a DSS recently created in the framework of the EU-funded project CIPRNet, to perform such tasks. CIPCast enables to perform risk assessment for Critical Infrastructures (CI) when subjected different natural hazards, including earthquakes. An ad-hoc customization of CIPCast for the seismic risk analysis and management of electric power networks is featured in this paper. The international literature describes effective and sound efforts towards the creation of software platforms and frameworks for the assessment of seismic risk of electric power networks. None of them, unfortunately, achieved the goal of creating a user-friendly and ready available DDS to be used by asset managers, local authorities and civil protection departments. Towards that and building on the international literature, the paper describes metrics and methods to be integrated within CIPCast for assessing the earthquake-induced physical and functional impacts of the electric power network at component and system level. The paper describes also how CIPCast can inform the service restoration process.

Risk assessment of urban areas aims at limiting the impact of harmful events by increasing awareness of their possible consequences. Qualitative risk assessment allows to figure out possible risk situations and to prioritize them, whereas quantitative risk assessment is devoted to measuring risks from data, in order to improve preparedness in case of crisis situations. We propose an automatic approach to comprehensive risk assessment. This leverages on a semantic and spatiotemporal representation of knowledge of the urban area and relies on a software system including: a knowledge base; two components for quantitative and qualitative risk assessments, respectively; and a WebGIS interface. The knowledge base consists of the TERMINUS domain ontology, to represent urban knowledge, and of a geo‐referenced database, including geographical, environmental and urban data as well as temporal data related to the levels of operation of city services. CIPcast DSS is the component devoted to quantitative risk assessment, and WS‐CREAM is the component supporting qualitative risk assessment based on computational creativity techniques. Two case studies concerning the city of Rome (Italy) show how this approach can be used in a real scenario for crisis preparedness. Finally, we discuss issues related to plausibility of risks and objectivity of their assessment.